Universal Music Group N.V.

ENXTAM:UMG Stock Report

Market Cap: €50.8b

Universal Music Group Valuation

Is UMG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UMG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: UMG (€27.88) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€23.84)

Significantly Below Fair Value: UMG is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UMG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

UMG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA29.8x
PEG Ratio3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does UMG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for UMG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average80.7x
FLE FL Entertainment
62x38.1%€3.8b
WMG Warner Music Group
37.1x20.1%US$17.3b
BOL Bolloré
148.4x34.1%€16.9b
DIS Walt Disney
75.2x25.0%US$221.9b
UMG Universal Music Group
40.3x13.4%€50.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UMG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.3x) compared to the peer average (80.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does UMG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Entertainment Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a21.2%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a21.2%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UMG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.3x) compared to the European Entertainment industry average (18.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UMG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UMG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio40.3x
Fair PE Ratio39.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: UMG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.5x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst UMG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€27.88
€29.27
+5.0%
16.9%€35.00€12.00n/a20
Mar ’25€27.56
€29.08
+5.5%
18.3%€35.00€12.00n/a20
Feb ’25€27.26
€28.35
+4.0%
17.6%€33.00€12.00n/a20
Jan ’25€25.81
€27.55
+6.7%
17.8%€34.00€12.00n/a20
Dec ’24€24.60
€27.30
+11.0%
17.8%€33.00€12.00n/a20
Nov ’24€23.00
€27.23
+18.4%
18.0%€33.00€12.00n/a19
Oct ’24€24.73
€26.07
+5.4%
20.4%€33.00€11.00n/a19
Sep ’24€22.66
€25.55
+12.7%
19.7%€31.00€11.00n/a19
Aug ’24€23.40
€25.55
+9.2%
19.7%€31.00€11.00n/a19
Jul ’24€20.35
€24.88
+22.3%
20.5%€31.00€11.00n/a18
Jun ’24€18.74
€25.41
+35.6%
20.1%€32.00€11.00n/a19
May ’24€19.81
€25.38
+28.1%
19.5%€32.00€11.00n/a20
Apr ’24€23.31
€25.93
+11.3%
18.2%€33.00€11.00n/a20
Mar ’24€22.38
€26.17
+17.0%
19.7%€36.00€11.00€27.5620
Feb ’24€23.21
€25.78
+11.1%
19.7%€36.00€11.00€27.2622
Jan ’24€22.51
€24.98
+11.0%
19.9%€35.00€11.00€25.8122
Dec ’23€22.44
€24.66
+9.9%
18.6%€32.00€11.00€24.6022
Nov ’23€19.98
€24.67
+23.4%
18.6%€32.00€11.00€23.0022
Oct ’23€19.33
€25.43
+31.6%
18.3%€32.00€11.00€24.7322
Sep ’23€19.09
€25.43
+33.2%
18.3%€32.00€11.00€22.6622
Aug ’23€22.16
€25.99
+17.3%
14.1%€32.00€16.10€23.4021
Jul ’23€19.12
€26.47
+38.4%
16.9%€32.00€11.00€20.3521
Jun ’23€21.00
€26.44
+25.9%
16.9%€32.00€11.00€18.7421
May ’23€22.29
€26.29
+18.0%
17.9%€32.00€11.00€19.8120
Apr ’23€24.00
€26.32
+9.7%
12.5%€31.00€20.40€23.3120
Mar ’23€19.68
€27.36
+39.0%
13.3%€34.00€21.00€22.3818

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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