Universal Music Group (UMG) Stock Overview
Operates as a music company worldwide. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3/6 |
| Future Growth | 2/6 |
| Past Performance | 3/6 |
| Financial Health | 3/6 |
| Dividends | 3/6 |
UMG Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 36 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Universal Music Group N.V. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | €17.76 |
| 52 Week High | €28.29 |
| 52 Week Low | €15.41 |
| Beta | 0.80 |
| 1 Month Change | -13.49% |
| 3 Month Change | -1.66% |
| 1 Year Change | -36.37% |
| 3 Year Change | -11.90% |
| 5 Year Change | n/a |
| Change since IPO | -29.24% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Jun 07
UMG: AI Licensing Partnerships Will Drive Future Upside Versus Trimmed Fair Value Estimate
Analysts have adjusted the implied fair value for Universal Music Group to €25.81 from €28.90, reflecting updated assumptions around slightly lower profit margins, a lower future P/E multiple, and higher projected revenue growth, alongside supportive Street research citing UMG's role in new AI driven partnerships with Spotify and recent price target moves from firms such as JPMorgan, Guggenheim, and Citi. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Universal Music Group and its partnerships with Spotify gives you a mix of optimism and caution to weigh against the revised fair value estimate.
Narrative Update • May 24
UMG: AI Partnerships And Premium Features Will Support Catalog Earnings Power
Narrative Update: Universal Music Group The analyst fair value estimate for Universal Music Group has moved from about €37.81 to about €39.91, reflecting updated views on discount rates, slightly higher projected revenue growth, a modestly lower profit margin assumption, and a higher future P/E multiple, with analysts pointing in part to the recent AI and premium feature partnerships highlighted in streaming sector research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Universal Music Group highlights a mix of optimism around AI partnerships and premium features on streaming platforms, alongside some caution about longer term AI risks for major labels.Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 07
UMG: AI Licensing Partnerships Will Drive Future Upside Versus Trimmed Fair Value Estimate
Analysts have adjusted the implied fair value for Universal Music Group to €25.81 from €28.90, reflecting updated assumptions around slightly lower profit margins, a lower future P/E multiple, and higher projected revenue growth, alongside supportive Street research citing UMG's role in new AI driven partnerships with Spotify and recent price target moves from firms such as JPMorgan, Guggenheim, and Citi. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Universal Music Group and its partnerships with Spotify gives you a mix of optimism and caution to weigh against the revised fair value estimate.Narrative Update • May 24
UMG: AI Partnerships And Premium Features Will Support Catalog Earnings Power
Narrative Update: Universal Music Group The analyst fair value estimate for Universal Music Group has moved from about €37.81 to about €39.91, reflecting updated views on discount rates, slightly higher projected revenue growth, a modestly lower profit margin assumption, and a higher future P/E multiple, with analysts pointing in part to the recent AI and premium feature partnerships highlighted in streaming sector research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Universal Music Group highlights a mix of optimism around AI partnerships and premium features on streaming platforms, alongside some caution about longer term AI risks for major labels.
Narrative Update • May 05
UMG: AI Disruption And Deal Uncertainty Will Pressure Long Term Catalog Economics
Analysts now see Universal Music Group's fair value in line with a refreshed price target of €27. This reflects updated assumptions around slightly higher revenue growth, modestly stronger profit margins and a marginally lower discount rate, even as recent Street research has included both upgrades and downgrades and highlighted AI related risks for major labels.Narrative Update • Apr 20
UMG: AI Disruption Fears Will Contrast With Resilient Catalog Earnings Power
Universal Music Group's updated analyst price target has moved by €0.89, with researchers pointing to modest adjustments in fair value, discount rate, expected revenue growth, margin assumptions and future P/E as they balance recent upgrades against ongoing concerns around AI related risk to major labels. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Universal Music Group has been mixed, with adjustments to price targets and ratings reflecting both enthusiasm for the long term franchise and concern about AI related disruption to recorded music and catalogs.Narrative Update • Apr 06
UMG: AI Disruption Fears Will Pressure Long Term Catalog Economics
Analysts have trimmed the fair value estimate for Universal Music Group from €21.00 to €15.00. This reflects a lower assumed future P/E of about 19x and a slightly higher discount rate, while still incorporating revenue growth expectations and recent mixed research views on AI risk and label strength into their models.Narrative Update • Mar 23
UMG: AI Partnerships And Catalog Strength Will Support Future Earnings Power
Analysts now see only a modest change in fair value for Universal Music Group, with the updated internal valuation edging from about €36.76 to approximately €36.91. This reflects mixed Street views that balance fresh price target cuts around €27 with higher targets up to €31, as well as ongoing debate around AI related risks and long term earnings power.Narrative Update • Mar 09
UMG: AI Partnerships And Catalog Strength Will Support Future Earnings
Narrative Update: Universal Music Group The analyst price target for Universal Music Group has been adjusted to €31. This reflects updated assumptions around higher revenue growth, stronger profit margins and a lower future P/E multiple, as analysts balance upside views from recent upgrades with renewed focus on AI related risks for major labels.Narrative Update • Feb 22
UMG: AI Partnerships And Catalog Monetisation Will Support Higher Future Earnings
Analysts have nudged their price target for Universal Music Group slightly lower to about €38.14 from roughly €38.19, reflecting updated assumptions around growth, profitability and the P/E multiple after a series of recent bullish research calls and upgrades on the stock. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has leaned positive, with several bullish analysts updating their views on Universal Music Group and revisiting their assumptions on growth, profitability and valuation multiples.Narrative Update • Feb 08
UMG: AI Partnerships Will Drive Future Upside Versus Trimmed Fair Value Estimate
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Universal Music Group to about €28.90, while pointing to slightly higher assumed growth, margin expectations and discount rates. They also referenced recent bullish research and price target moves from several banks as support for the updated view.Narrative Update • Jan 25
UMG: AI Licensing Deals Will Support Higher Future Earnings Power
Analysts have inched up their price target on Universal Music Group to €31 from €30, citing updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E that modestly refine their view of the stock's fair value. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a slightly higher fair value for Universal Music Group, with the price target now set at €31.Narrative Update • Jan 09
UMG: AI Partnerships And Retail Expansion Will Shape A Balanced Outlook
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Universal Music Group from €22.00 to €21.00 per share, reflecting updated views on slightly higher revenue growth assumptions, a modestly lower discount rate, a lower profit margin outlook, and a reduced future P/E multiple. What's in the News UMG is collaborating with NVIDIA to develop AI tools for music discovery, creation, and engagement using NVIDIA AI infrastructure and UMG's catalog of millions of tracks across genres and eras, with a focus on rightsholder attribution and protection (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Dec 29
Here's Why Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Narrative Update • Dec 26
UMG: AI Licensing Deals Will Drive New High-Margin Revenue Streams
Analysts have slightly trimmed their price target on Universal Music Group by about 1 percent, reflecting a modestly lower fair value estimate even as they factor in marginally stronger long term revenue growth and a broadly unchanged profitability and valuation outlook. What's in the News Universal Music and Warner Music are reportedly nearing AI licensing deals with multiple generative audio startups, including ElevenLabs, Stability AI, Suno, Udio and Klay Vision, signaling a potential wave of new revenue streams from AI audio platforms (Financial Times).Narrative Update • Dec 12
UMG: AI Licensing Deals Will Unlock New High-Margin Revenue Streams
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Universal Music Group, reflecting incremental optimism around slightly faster expected revenue growth and higher future earnings multiples that more than offset a small downward revision to projected profit margins. What's in the News Universal Music and Warner Music are reportedly nearing landmark AI licensing deals with several generative AI startups, potentially securing new monetization and usage safeguards around their catalogs in the coming weeks (Financial Times).Analysis Article • Nov 16
Investors Met With Slowing Returns on Capital At Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG)
To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? One common approach is...Analysis Article • Oct 24
Some Shareholders Feeling Restless Over Universal Music Group N.V.'s (AMS:UMG) P/E Ratio
With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 17x in the Netherlands, you could be forgiven for feeling...Analysis Article • Sep 30
Is Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG) Potentially Undervalued?
Universal Music Group N.V. ( AMS:UMG ) received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the ENXTAM over...Analysis Article • Sep 17
Calculating The Fair Value Of Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG)
Key Insights Universal Music Group's estimated fair value is €29.54 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current...Analysis Article • Aug 21
Here's Why We Think Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) Might Deserve Your Attention Today
ENXTAM:UMG 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Universal Music Group's Fair Values from the Community and select...Analysis Article • Aug 08
Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) Has Affirmed Its Dividend Of €0.24
Universal Music Group N.V. ( AMS:UMG ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of €0.24 per share on the 28th of...Analysis Article • Aug 03
Universal Music Group N.V. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year
It's been a mediocre week for Universal Music Group N.V. ( AMS:UMG ) shareholders, with the stock dropping 14% to...Analysis Article • Jul 30
Capital Investment Trends At Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) Look Strong
To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? In a perfect world, we'd...Analysis Article • Jul 14
Some Shareholders Feeling Restless Over Universal Music Group N.V.'s (AMS:UMG) P/E Ratio
Universal Music Group N.V.'s ( AMS:UMG ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 23.5x might make it look like a sell...Analysis Article • Jun 29
Should You Investigate Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG) At €27.32?
Let's talk about the popular Universal Music Group N.V. ( AMS:UMG ). The company's shares saw a decent share price...Analysis Article • Jun 15
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG)
Key Insights Universal Music Group's estimated fair value is €27.97 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current...
New Narrative • Nov 07
Innovative Streaming And Global Expansion Set To Boost Engagement And Drive Earnings Growth
Universal Music Group's focus on an artist-centric strategy and innovative streaming plans is set to boost revenue via enhanced customer engagement and monetization.Shareholder Returns
| UMG | NL Entertainment | NL Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -2.1% | -2.1% | 6.1% |
| 1Y | -36.4% | -33.7% | 40.5% |
Return vs Industry: UMG underperformed the Dutch Entertainment industry which returned -33.7% over the past year.
Return vs Market: UMG underperformed the Dutch Market which returned 40.5% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| UMG volatility | |
|---|---|
| UMG Average Weekly Movement | 6.1% |
| Entertainment Industry Average Movement | 6.1% |
| Market Average Movement | 4.6% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in NL Market | 7.6% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in NL Market | 2.5% |
Stable Share Price: UMG has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the Dutch market.
Volatility Over Time: UMG's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 9,636 | Lucian Grainge | www.universalmusic.com |
Universal Music Group N.V. operates as a music company worldwide. The company operates through Recorded Music, Music Publishing, and Merchandising & Other segments. Its Recorded Music segment discovers and develops recording artists, as well as licenses, markets, promotes, distributes, and sells their music across various formats and platforms; and engages in the live events, sponsorship, film, and television operations.
Universal Music Group N.V. Fundamentals Summary
| UMG fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | €32.55b |
| Earnings (TTM) | €1.53b |
| Revenue (TTM) | €12.51b |
21.2x
P/E Ratio2.6x
P/S RatioIs UMG overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| UMG income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | €12.51b |
| Cost of Revenue | €7.20b |
| Gross Profit | €5.31b |
| Other Expenses | €3.78b |
| Earnings | €1.53b |
Last Reported Earnings
Dec 31, 2025
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 0.84 |
| Gross Margin | 42.46% |
| Net Profit Margin | 12.26% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 62.3% |
How did UMG perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
2.9%
Current Dividend Yield62%
Payout RatioCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/14 18:30 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/12 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Universal Music Group N.V. is covered by 29 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| JULIEN ROCH | Barclays |
| Christophe Cherblanc | Bernstein |
| William Packer | BNP Paribas |