GFL Environmental Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of GFL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

GFL (CA$65.39) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CA$77.88)

Is GFL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GFL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GFL (CA$65.39) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$77.88)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GFL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GFL?

Key metric: As GFL is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for GFL. This is calculated by dividing GFL's market cap by their current revenue.
What is GFL's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	3.3x
Sales	CA$7.76b
Market Cap	CA$25.72b

GFL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	4.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	19.7x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does GFL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for GFL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	2.1x
EFN Element Fleet Management	5.4x	-5.9%	CA$12.2b
ANRG Anaergia	1.4x	17.4%	CA$159.1m
BYD Boyd Group Services	1.1x	7.9%	CA$4.8b
GIP Green Impact Partners	0.5x	2.3%	CA$78.7m
GFL GFL Environmental	3.3x	6.5%	CA$25.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: GFL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x) compared to the peer average (2.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does GFL's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Commercial Services Industry?

5 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
GDI GDI Integrated Facility Services	0.3x	2.8%	US$609.09m
DXT Dexterra Group	0.4x	-0.9%	US$321.44m
DCM DATA Communications Management	0.2x	4.0%	US$78.72m
VTX Vertex Resource Group	0.1x	4.2%	US$23.24m

5 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: GFL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x) compared to the Canadian Commercial Services industry average (1.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GFL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GFL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	3.3x
Fair PS Ratio	2.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: GFL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GFL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CA$65.39	CA$65.32 -0.1%	17.9%	CA$76.00	CA$39.50	n/a	11
Nov ’25	CA$58.05	CA$58.95 +1.6%	17.8%	CA$70.00	CA$39.50	n/a	11
Oct ’25	CA$53.60	CA$57.05 +6.4%	17.3%	CA$70.00	CA$39.50	n/a	10
Sep ’25	CA$58.40	CA$57.25 -2.0%	16.8%	CA$70.00	CA$39.50	n/a	10
Aug ’25	CA$55.60	CA$59.15 +6.4%	15.8%	CA$70.00	CA$39.50	n/a	10
Jul ’25	CA$53.28	CA$55.75 +4.6%	16.2%	CA$70.00	CA$39.50	n/a	10
Jun ’25	CA$42.91	CA$54.45 +26.9%	14.1%	CA$66.00	CA$39.50	n/a	10
May ’25	CA$43.78	CA$53.95 +23.2%	12.5%	CA$63.00	CA$39.50	n/a	11
Apr ’25	CA$46.87	CA$53.23 +13.6%	14.2%	CA$63.00	CA$39.50	n/a	11
Mar ’25	CA$48.16	CA$51.63 +7.2%	17.4%	CA$63.00	CA$34.00	n/a	12
Feb ’25	CA$46.89	CA$48.88 +4.2%	18.3%	CA$60.00	CA$30.00	n/a	12
Jan ’25	CA$45.71	CA$48.54 +6.2%	18.3%	CA$60.00	CA$30.00	n/a	12
Dec ’24	CA$39.92	CA$48.38 +21.2%	18.1%	CA$60.00	CA$30.00	n/a	12
Nov ’24	CA$40.08	CA$51.23 +27.8%	14.6%	CA$60.00	CA$36.00	CA$58.05	11
Oct ’24	CA$43.13	CA$54.06 +25.3%	10.7%	CA$60.00	CA$39.50	CA$53.60	9
Sep ’24	CA$44.15	CA$54.06 +22.4%	10.7%	CA$60.00	CA$39.50	CA$58.40	9
Aug ’24	CA$45.35	CA$54.17 +19.4%	10.8%	CA$60.00	CA$39.50	CA$55.60	9
Jul ’24	CA$51.44	CA$54.50 +5.9%	13.1%	CA$62.00	CA$36.50	CA$53.28	9
Jun ’24	CA$49.63	CA$53.94 +8.7%	13.8%	CA$62.00	CA$36.50	CA$42.91	8
May ’24	CA$49.63	CA$53.19 +7.2%	13.7%	CA$62.00	CA$36.50	CA$43.78	8
Apr ’24	CA$46.60	CA$48.56 +4.2%	15.2%	CA$58.00	CA$31.50	CA$46.87	8
Mar ’24	CA$41.71	CA$48.56 +16.4%	15.2%	CA$58.00	CA$31.50	CA$48.16	8
Feb ’24	CA$41.42	CA$46.94 +13.3%	14.8%	CA$54.00	CA$31.50	CA$46.89	8
Jan ’24	CA$39.54	CA$47.19 +19.3%	14.9%	CA$54.00	CA$31.50	CA$45.71	8
Dec ’23	CA$39.63	CA$46.69 +17.8%	14.9%	CA$54.00	CA$31.50	CA$39.92	8
Nov ’23	CA$36.11	CA$46.63 +29.1%	13.1%	CA$54.00	CA$34.00	CA$40.08	8

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.