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PayPal Holdings

PayPal: PayPal Doesn't Need to Grow – It Needs to Stop Falling – A Mispriced Cash Machine With a Cannibal Buyback

PayPal is treated like a business in decline, but the case here is that it only needs to stop slipping for sentiment to improve—and its heavy share buybacks could amplify that recovery if the core stays steady. The bigger question is whether PayPal’s cross‑platform person‑to‑person payments and new AI-driven ways to pay become tailwinds, or whether rising competition and shrinking profit per transaction keep the slide going.
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US$65
FV
13.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
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Celsius Holdings

From $5M to $2B: Why the 2024 Crash Was the Best Buying Opportunity in Consumer Stocks

A 17-Year Story That Most Investors Only Discovered in the Last Three In 2010, Celsius Holdings (CELH) was generating roughly US$5 million in annual revenue, a forgotten energy drink with niche distribution in Scandinavian gyms and a handful of US health food stores. By the end of 2025, the company had crossed US$2 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue and acquired two major energy drink brands.
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US$55.43
FV
47.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
20.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
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Ross Stores

ROST offers strong downside protection with cash-rich balance sheet, dependable but modest compounding despite losing relative scale to TJX

2,282-store US off-price retailer that converts other people's inventory mistakes into an 18% return on invested capital, and it does so most reliably when the economy is worst — recessions simultaneously push shoppers toward value and flood the closeout market with distressed branded goods, which is why the business generated record free cash flow in the COVID year on collapsed earnings. The investment case is not growth; it is protected compounding at a modest rate.Read more

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US$74.69
212.6% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
-15.04% p.a.
Profit Margin
9.74%
Future PE
32.34x
Price in 2031
US$110.71
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Zevra Therapeutics

Zevra Therapeutics: Galloping Through a Green Safari

From Prodrugs to a Rare Disease Powerhouse Zevra Therapeutics wasn’t always a rare disease contender. Originally known as KemPharm , the company spent years focused on prodrug technology for ADHD and pain management.Read more

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US$15
14.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
16.48% p.a.
Profit Margin
95.68%
Future PE
6.45x
Price in 2031
US$21.14
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Netflix

Netflix's Attention Deficit: Pricing and Ads Racing Against View-Hour Stagnation

Start with what happened, because what happened is not an opinion. After the close on Thursday, Netflix published its second quarter results.Read more

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US$77
10.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
8.97% p.a.
Profit Margin
28.22%
Future PE
21.03x
Price in 2031
US$112.34
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Accenture

Accenture at $143 is a Coiled Spring

Wall Street fears companies will cut tech spending and that new tools will make consulting less needed, but Accenture could be in a stronger spot than the mood suggests. If businesses still need help putting new tech into real-world use, Accenture’s push into security, cloud, and buybacks could make today’s worries look overdone.Read more

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US$280
48.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
10.84% p.a.
Profit Margin
11%
Future PE
20x
Price in 2029
US$372.44