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CA$5.25
FV
42.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
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US$730.02
16.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
15.76% p.a.
Profit Margin
32.84%
Future PE
20.26x
Price in 2031
US$1.11k
JP¥77.06k
45.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
19.96% p.a.
Profit Margin
41.22%
Future PE
32.18x
Price in 2031
JP¥103.69k
US$14.39
30.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
11% p.a.
Profit Margin
9%
Future PE
42x
Price in 2036
US$34.05
US$119.99
57.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
27.15% p.a.
Profit Margin
15.17%
Future PE
8.45x
Price in 2031
US$185.59
€30
82.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
20%
Future PE
16x
Price in 2031
€91.55
US$65
32.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
US$36.83
16.9% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
5.04% p.a.
Profit Margin
8%
Future PE
24x
Price in 2036
US$96.01