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PayPal Holdings

PayPal: PayPal Doesn't Need to Grow – It Needs to Stop Falling – A Mispriced Cash Machine With a Cannibal Buyback

PayPal is treated like a business in decline, but the case here is that it only needs to stop slipping for sentiment to improve—and its heavy share buybacks could amplify that recovery if the core stays steady. The bigger question is whether PayPal’s cross‑platform person‑to‑person payments and new AI-driven ways to pay become tailwinds, or whether rising competition and shrinking profit per transaction keep the slide going.
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US$65
FV
13.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
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Celsius Holdings

From $5M to $2B: Why the 2024 Crash Was the Best Buying Opportunity in Consumer Stocks

A 17-Year Story That Most Investors Only Discovered in the Last Three In 2010, Celsius Holdings (CELH) was generating roughly US$5 million in annual revenue, a forgotten energy drink with niche distribution in Scandinavian gyms and a handful of US health food stores. By the end of 2025, the company had crossed US$2 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue and acquired two major energy drink brands.
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US$55.43
FV
47.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
20.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
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Amgen

A transitional big-pharma giant holding a speculative premium driven by obesity hype, masking severe revenue erosion.

The "Amgen 2027 Bull Case" relies on a classic top-line fallacy: assuming that macro obesity market growth and FDA's CNPV (Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher) tailwinds will automatically trigger a re-rating. Here is the cold, data-driven reality: 1.Read more

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US$359.98
1.8% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
7.5% p.a.
Profit Margin
20.96%
Future PE
25.34x
Price in 2031
US$519.33
MSFT logo
Microsoft

Is Microsoft on sale? and Its Case in the AI Race

(This story appeared on my substack page around a week ago: https://open.substack.com/pub/piproberts25/p/is-microsoft-on-sale-and-its-case?r=6kjdcg&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web ) Last October, Microsoft was trading at around US$540 per share. Today it trades closer to US$385.Read more

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US$404
2.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
9.13% p.a.
Profit Margin
39.34%
Future PE
23.36x
Price in 2031
US$611.51
NFLX logo
Netflix

Netflix's Attention Deficit: Pricing and Ads Racing Against View-Hour Stagnation

Start with what happened, because what happened is not an opinion. After the close on Thursday, Netflix published its second quarter results.Read more

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US$77
10.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
8.97% p.a.
Profit Margin
28.22%
Future PE
21.03x
Price in 2031
US$112.34
SVRS logo
Silver Storm Mining

Silver Storm Mining, 34 Million Oz Produced, Now Targeting Q2 2026 Restart

Silver Storm Mining aims to restart a past-producing mine while it drills out a much larger project that could change the company’s scale if the work succeeds. The catch is it needs supportive silver prices, strong financing, and better metal recovery to make the longer-term upside real.Read more

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CA$8.84
95.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
9.53%
Future PE
17.48x
Price in 2031
CA$12.27
ACN logo
Accenture

Accenture at $143 is a Coiled Spring

Wall Street fears companies will cut tech spending and that new tools will make consulting less needed, but Accenture could be in a stronger spot than the mood suggests. If businesses still need help putting new tech into real-world use, Accenture’s push into security, cloud, and buybacks could make today’s worries look overdone.Read more

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US$280
48.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
10.84% p.a.
Profit Margin
11%
Future PE
20x
Price in 2029
US$372.44
HCW logo
HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT

The Discount Is Real — But Only If You Price the Exit, Not the Balance Sheet

HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT (ASX:HCW) · Community narrative · July 2026 My fair value: A$1.07–1.13 (exit-adjusted) · Buy under A$0.68 · Current price A$0.72 The one-line thesis The market is pricing HCW as though its hospital income is permanently halved. The evidence says the damage is 10–15% — and that gap, not the rent, is the entire return on offer.Read more

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AU$1.07
33.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
54.52%
Future PE
19.75x
Price in 2031
AU$1.58
MSCI logo
MSCI

MSCI 04-2026

MSCI sits behind many of the market yardsticks big investors rely on, and changing away from it can be such a hassle that customers tend to stick around for years. Growth in index-based investing and a push to bring more order to private markets could give MSCI new ways to expand, but the story depends on steady execution and continued customer loyalty.Read more

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US$416.4
51.0% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
-5.07% p.a.
Profit Margin
38.36%
Future PE
34.58x
Price in 2031
US$616.7
BRC logo
Blackrock Silver

Are Blackrock Silver shares oversold?

Blackrock Silver’s Nevada project looks like a rare, high-quality silver find at a time when many small miners have been sold off hard. It could draw interest from bigger miners and even tech and solar buyers, but it’s still a speculative bet that can go wrong.Read more

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CA$3
70.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
13.54%
Future PE
16.6x
Price in 2031
CA$4.35