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Oracle

Oracle - A Fundamental and Historical Valuation

Business Overview Key Metrics Total: 1.5/17 +2 ✅✅ Projected Operating Margin: 37.59% +2 ✅✅ Projected 5-Year Revenue CAGR: 30.67% +0 ⚠️ Last 5-Year ROIC: 9.00% -2 ❌❌ Estimated Cost of Capital: 12.00% (greater than ROIC) +0 ⚠️ Last 5-Year Shares Outstanding CAGR: +0.00% +2 ✅✅ Projected 5-Year EPS CAGR: 26.79% +0 ⚠️ Projected 5-Year Dividend CAGR: 4.92% +0.5 ✅ Moody's Debt Rating: Baa2 -1 ❌ Morningstar Moat: Narrow -2 ❌❌ Morningstar Uncertainty: Very High Business Valuation To calculate the intrinsic value of the company I'll use multiple methods: Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) - Intrinsic value is estimated by projecting its free cash flows over the next 10 years and discounting them to present value using the estimated cost of capital ; EPS Growth - the fair value is estimated by projecting the Earnings Per Share CAGR for the next 5 Years and then, given its current and historic values of PE, come up with a PE for the 5th Year. This will give us its price 5 Years from now using the formula: Price = EPS x PE that we then discount using the estimated cost of capital; Historical P/S - we assume mean reversion to the historical P/S values; Historical EV/EBITDA - we assume mean reversion to the historical EV/EBITDA values; Historical P/E - we assume mean reversion to the historical P/E values.Read more

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US$192.59
4.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
A weighted average between: - DCF - EPS Growth - Historical P/S - Historical EV/EBITDA - Historical P/E
US$91.56
18.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
5.83% p.a.
Profit Margin
12.05%
Future PE
18.5x
Price in 2036
US$216.76
US$88.23
11.0% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
2.32% p.a.
Profit Margin
9.36%
Future PE
9.5x
Price in 2031
US$124.37