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US$317.2
FV
25.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
8.69%
Revenue growth p.a.
412
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30users have followed this narrative
US$151
FV
20.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
10.50%
Revenue growth p.a.
4.1k
users have viewed this narrative
11users have liked this narrative
7users have commented on this narrative
83users have followed this narrative
US$317.2
25.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
8.69% p.a.
Profit Margin
29.48%
Future PE
13.94x
Price in 2031
US$480.15
ر.س18
7.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Specialized Sector Valuation: Residual Income (RI) ModelYou pointed out the importance of fair value assuming a 3-year horizon based on Residual Income. This is the most accurate sectoral model for utilities, calculated as follows:$$V_0 = BV_0 + \sum_{t=1}^{n} \frac{NI_t - (r_e \times BV_{t-1})}{(1 + r_e)^t}$$ Where:$BV_0$: Current Book Value per share (~19.5 SAR).$NI_t$: Expected Net Income.$r_e$: Target Cost of Equity, assumed at 8.0% given the defensive nature of the company.Residual Income = Net Income - (Cost of Equity × Book Value).Application to SEC:Due to the Mudaraba instrument and regulatory constraints, the company's ROE is roughly 3.5% to 4.5%, which is lower than the Cost of Equity ($r_e = 8\%$).Since $ROE < r_e$, the "Residual Income" is technically negative. This is the precise scientific and logical explanation for why the stock currently trades at (16.73 SAR), which is below its book value (19.5 SAR). The market discounts this difference.Fair Value in 3 Years (2029):Expecting slight operational efficiency improvements (smart meters and green financing), and assuming ROE stabilizes at 5.5% while maintaining the fixed payout policy (0.70 SAR), the fair value calculated using the RI model for the next 3 years centers in the range of 17.80 to 18.50 SAR.
AU$4.62
51.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
27.85% p.a.
Profit Margin
0.11%
Future PE
562.59x
Price in 2031
AU$6.8
€33.8
85.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
13.86%
Future PE
18.06x
Price in 2029
€47.88
US$65.9
25.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
25%
Future PE
30x
Price in 2031
US$97.15
RM 1.8
72.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
11.71% p.a.
Profit Margin
5.89%
Future PE
1.05kx
Price in 2031
RM 2.72