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Catalysts Most Immediate Catalyst (1–2 Years): AI Integration & Monetization: Google is aggressively integrating AI across its products (Search, Ads, Cloud, YouTube). If AI-powered search increases engagement and advertising efficiency, it could drive significant revenue per search improvements.Read more

Catalysts Most Immediate Catalyst (1–2 Years): Automation & Robotics Demand Surge: Companies are investing heavily in industrial automation to reduce labor costs, increase efficiency, and improve production quality. ABB’s Robotics & Discrete Automation segment benefits directly.Read more

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12-Month Price Target: $142 Current Price: $105.71 Implied Upside: 34.3% Rating: STRONG BUY Risk Assessment: MODERATE INVESTMENT THESIS Global Payments (GPN) presents a compelling investment opportunity at current levels, with three key catalysts driving potential outperformance in 2025: Q4 2024 momentum in Merchant Solutions with strong POS adoption (added ~3,000 new locations) Strategic sale of AdvancedMD for $1.125 billion at attractive multiple with $700M earmarked for shareholder returns Successful integration of EVO Payments enhancing B2B capabilities and geographic reach VALUATION METHODOLOGY Our $142 price target reflects: Forward P/E multiple of 13x (below historical average, reflecting current market dynamics) applied to our 2025 EPS estimate of $10.92 EV/EBITDA multiple of 11x on projected 2025 EBITDA, reflecting recent sector compression DCF analysis using 9.5% WACC (adjusted for higher rate environment) and 3% terminal growth KEY GROWTH DRIVERS Recent Performance Highlights Q3 2024 adjusted net revenue increased 6% to $2.36 billion Adjusted operating margin expanded 40 basis points to 46.1% Added 92 new software partners in Q3, up 60% year-over-year Macro Environment U.S. GDP growth projected at 2.4% for 2025, supporting payment volumes Fed funds rate expected to decrease to 3.88%, reducing funding costs Resilient high-income consumer spending evidenced by recent holiday data RISK FACTORS Near-term margin pressure from technology investments and compensation costs Integration execution risk from recent acquisitions Increasing competition in digital payments space Potential policy changes under new administration FINANCIAL METRICS Key Financial Metrics for Q4 2024E: Revenue Growth: 5-6% Operating Margin: 46.1% EPS Growth: 11-12% Free Cash Flow Conversion: 92% Projected Metrics for 2025E: Revenue Growth: 8-9% Operating Margin: 46.6% EPS Growth: 13-14% Free Cash Flow Conversion: 93% STRATEGIC POSITIONING Recent developments reinforce GPN's leadership in: Integrated payments with strong new partner acquisition B2B payments expansion through EVO integration Software-driven solutions with continued innovation International market penetration RECOMMENDATION RATIONALE Our STRONG BUY recommendation at current price of $105.71 is based on: Current valuation represents significant discount to intrinsic value Strong Q3 2024 execution with improving operating leverage Strategic initiatives creating clearer growth path Robust free cash flow generation supporting shareholder returnsRead more

Evolution Gaming - King of the Live Casino Evolution Gaming is the leading B2B provider of live casino solutions. They power the online games you love!Read more

History of Homebuilding: Homebuilding has been in decline since April 2022, and it was the following month when public sentiment realized they were facing a housing crisis. Notable causes were the sharp drop in new home building starts, sharp increases in federal funds rate, rising mortgage rates, peak of average/median home sales price, and high months' supply ratio.Read more

Executive Summary Based on exceptional recent execution and accelerating growth metrics, we revise our 12-month price target for PDD Holdings to $165.00, representing approximately 74% upside from the current price of $94.68. Recent Performance Highlights Q3 2024 demonstrated remarkable acceleration across key metrics: Transaction services revenue surged 72% year-over-year, significantly outpacing expectations Operating profit increased 46% to RMB 24.3 billion with expanding margins Net income growth accelerated to 61% year-over-year Cash position strengthened to $44 billion, providing substantial strategic flexibility Key Growth Catalysts International Expansion: Temu's semi-entrusted model showing stronger-than-anticipated margin improvement Geographic footprint expanded to 70+ countries with robust user acquisition metrics Customer acquisition costs decreased 22% quarter-over-quarter Platform Economics: Take rate expanded to 3.8%, demonstrating pricing power Monthly active users exceeded 900 million in Q4 2024 Merchant retention rate stable at 89% despite take rate increases Risk Assessment Near-term Challenges: EU's VLOP designation may require additional compliance investments Potential changes to U.S. de minimis import rules Intensifying competition in cross-border e-commerce Revised Valuation Analysis Given the acceleration in key metrics, we apply a 10x FY2024E EV/EBITDA multiple (up from 8x), still below high-growth internet peers at 12-15x.Read more

My main narrative for FRE: What former CEO Mark Schneider blow up to an inefficient giant, will now be cut down by actual CEO Michael Sen and trimmed on efficiency from formally 4 segments FMC (dialyses), Helios (private hospitals), Kabi(Generic & Infusions), Vamed (Projects & Digitalization) only 2 remain: Helios, Kabi, the other will be sold, and the intakes will help to restructure the financial situation under Mark Schneider the Spanish hospitals were acquired, this was a good deal: privat hospital runs well in Spain, because of their good reputation wealthy Latin Americans travel for medical treatments to Spain I focus also on: More equity than debt. Ratio is at 62% (debt/equity).Read more

<<< To see my other narratives, please scroll up and klick on Tokyo (next to my profile picture) >>> My main narrative for ANET: Young company (founded 2004, IPO 2014), disrupting CISCO in the High Speed Switch Market (for Datacenter, Cloud and AI) Very successful introduction of Fast Internet Switches for Brokerage (High Speed Trading) Internet Speed will continuously increase to meet “tactile internet” capabilities (control robots or vehicles over distance (through internet) with nearly no delay) Perfect fit of Arista HW and Arista SW, as known from Apple devices, leads to high customer satisfaction and customer binding I focus also on: More equity than debt. Ratio is at 0%.Read more

<<< To see my other narratives, please scroll up and klick on Tokyo (next to my profile picture) >>> My main narrative for CRWD: · When founder and CEO George Kurtz founded CRWD in 2011, Cybersecurtiy Software, was nothing new, but with several pain points for customers: reduced system performance, updates needed to be installed, for each problem you needed a different software, so you dealt with silos, … · So he build a fully cloud-based platform, named Falcon. It has a modular concept, and customer pays within an abo model only the contracted modules.Read more