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Weekly Picks
Alphabet
BL
BlackGoat
Community Contributor
Alphabet: The Under-appreciated Compounder Hiding in Plain Sight
Summary Google trades at ~18× forward earnings; the cheapest among the Magnificent 7 Market is too focused on AI threats to Search and antitrust noise Meanwhile, Google is executing across AI, Cloud, and YouTube Key AI differentiator: unmatched distribution across 3B+ users via Search, Gmail, YouTube, Android, Chrome, and Cloud Quietly building a world-class AI infrastructure behind the scenes; including proprietary TPUs and a vertically integrated stack YouTube generated $8.93B in Q1 ad revenue (up 10% YoY); subscriptions hit 270M Google Cloud revenue up 28% YoY to $12.3B; now profitable Optionality from long-term bets like Waymo, DeepMind, and Verily Risk/reward is compelling; a strong candidate to beat the market long term Overview Despite being part of the "Magnificent Seven," Google’s stock lags due to perceived risks around disruption of its Search business from AI competitors and mounting antitrust concerns. But under the hood, Google has quietly built one of the most compelling setups in tech: with deep AI leadership, multiple high-growth businesses, and optionality from long-term moonshots like Waymo.
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US$282.83
FV
32.8% undervalued
intrinsic discount
9.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
23
users have liked this narrative
3
users have commented on this narrative
61
users have followed this narrative
Updated
narrative
Planet Labs PBC
AN
andreas_eliades
Community Contributor
Planet Labs: At The Heart Of The Emerging New Space Boom
Planet Labs leads the EO market with the largest satellite constellation, poised to capitalize on the growing demand for Earth Observation and geospatial data from companies and governments. Plunging space launch and GPU computation costs combined with advancements in CubeSat and AI technologies are boosting the utility of Earth Observation data.
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US$11.31
FV
45.4% undervalued
intrinsic discount
30.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
18
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
64
users have followed this narrative
New
narrative
Exxon Mobil
AG
Agricola
Community Contributor
Exxon in Guyana 5 year forecast Low $135 to High $189
Previous mistake rectified. So as pointed out in the comments, Chevron won the Hess bid (rather than Exxon) and took a large portion of the Stabroek block.
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US$174.00
FV
37.0% undervalued
intrinsic discount
12.97%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
4
users have liked this narrative
4
users have commented on this narrative
16
users have followed this narrative
Updated
narrative
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FACC
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 4 Analysts
Supply Chain Disruptions And Rising Costs Will Limit Aerospace Prospects
Key Takeaways Ongoing supply chain fragility, rising material costs, and limited pricing flexibility are squeezing margins and delaying production scaling despite supportive industry demand trends. High reliance on a few major customers and the threat of OEM insourcing could create revenue volatility and challenge long-term growth prospects.
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€7.40
FV
4.5% undervalued
intrinsic discount
7.61%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
Lovisa Holdings
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 15 Analysts
Store Saturation And Rising Costs Will Strain Margins
Key Takeaways Aggressive physical store expansion brings risks of market saturation, store cannibalization, and exposure to shifting consumer habits toward online and digital-native brands. Heightened sustainability concerns, volatile input costs, and changing fashion trends threaten margin stability and earnings through increased expenses and inventory risks.
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AU$22.87
FV
47.8% overvalued
intrinsic discount
14.48%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
Bemobi Mobile Tech
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 3 Analysts
Smartphone Decline And Regulatory Push Will Squeeze Profit Margins
Key Takeaways Slowing smartphone adoption and data privacy regulations are expected to constrain user growth, revenue potential, and increase compliance costs for Bemobi. Platform consolidation and the shift away from carrier billing expose Bemobi to margin pressures, intensified competition, and diminishing long-term profitability.
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R$18.00
FV
12.4% overvalued
intrinsic discount
-18.52%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
STMicroelectronics
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 20 Analysts
Excess Inventory And Regulatory Headwinds Will Squeeze Margins
Key Takeaways Persistent excess inventory and margin pressures threaten profitability amid sluggish demand, while rising regulatory and compliance costs add further challenges to earnings. Geopolitical tensions, new local competitors, and uncertain auto market prospects undermine order growth and could erode market share and margin stability.
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€20.49
FV
5.9% overvalued
intrinsic discount
5.66%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
Yubico
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 4 Analysts
Hardware Headwinds Will Hamper Margins While Subscriptions Will Gain Traction
Key Takeaways Shifting authentication technologies and native platform solutions threaten the long-term demand and margin sustainability of Yubico's proprietary hardware products. Price sensitivity and dependence on volatile enterprise contracts could constrain growth, posing challenges to recurring revenue and market expansion, particularly in emerging markets.
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SEK 160.00
FV
17.9% undervalued
intrinsic discount
17.14%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
Resolute Mining
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 5 Analysts
Rising West African Risks Will Hinder Operations While Gold Endures
Key Takeaways Long-term revenue and margin growth are threatened by regulatory risks, operational challenges at key assets, and political instability in core West African markets. Increasing ESG and compliance demands, alongside heightened competition for limited gold resources, may constrain future profitability despite ongoing production and efficiency gains.
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AU$0.75
FV
18.7% undervalued
intrinsic discount
-5.50%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
1
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
Cury Construtora e Incorporadora
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 11 Analysts
Government Subsidy Reliance And Market Saturation Will Weaken Outlook
Key Takeaways Heavy dependence on government housing programs and tightening credit conditions pose significant risks to revenue stability and sales growth. Market saturation, rising construction costs, and stricter environmental standards threaten margins and limit long-term expansion potential.
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R$24.97
FV
20.5% overvalued
intrinsic discount
21.50%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
Instalco
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 4 Analysts
High Interest And Demographic Headwinds Will Weaken European Orders
Key Takeaways Prolonged weak construction demand in Europe and unfavorable demographics threaten Instalco's revenue growth, order intake, and long-term business visibility. Increased competition, regulatory shifts, and complex expansions risk margin pressure, integration challenges, and reduced profitability if adaptation lags.
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SEK 27.00
FV
4.7% undervalued
intrinsic discount
4.70%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
SoFi Technologies
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 18 Analysts
Regulatory Scrutiny And Cyber Risks Will Stall Digital Expansion
Key Takeaways Greater regulatory oversight and persistent cyber risks threaten profitability, user growth, and overall customer trust in SoFi's digital banking model. Heavy reliance on lending exposes SoFi to competitive pressures, policy changes, and interest rate shifts, undermining margins and revenue stability.
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US$7.95
FV
166.9% overvalued
intrinsic discount
15.89%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
4
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
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