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PayPal Holdings

PayPal: PayPal Doesn't Need to Grow – It Needs to Stop Falling – A Mispriced Cash Machine With a Cannibal Buyback

PayPal is treated like a business in decline, but the case here is that it only needs to stop slipping for sentiment to improve—and its heavy share buybacks could amplify that recovery if the core stays steady. The bigger question is whether PayPal’s cross‑platform person‑to‑person payments and new AI-driven ways to pay become tailwinds, or whether rising competition and shrinking profit per transaction keep the slide going.
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US$65
FV
12.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
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Celsius Holdings

From $5M to $2B: Why the 2024 Crash Was the Best Buying Opportunity in Consumer Stocks

A 17-Year Story That Most Investors Only Discovered in the Last Three In 2010, Celsius Holdings (CELH) was generating roughly US$5 million in annual revenue, a forgotten energy drink with niche distribution in Scandinavian gyms and a handful of US health food stores. By the end of 2025, the company had crossed US$2 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue and acquired two major energy drink brands.
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US$55.43
FV
45.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
20.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
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Macy's

Macys value

Bull Macy’s owns significant real estate that can be sold to provide liquidity, pay down debt, and finance new investments. The firm intends to raise about $600 million-$750 million from real estate sales over the next three years.Read more

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US$24.43
1.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
5.57% p.a.
Profit Margin
5.6%
Future PE
7.5x
Price in 2035
US$57.84
PSX logo
Phillips 66

room for higher margins

Phillips 66 (PSX) is often considered undervalued for several reasons. Investment analysis typically looks at various factors to determine if a company's stock might be undervalued and whether it has the potential to achieve higher profit margins.Read more

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US$268.71
25.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
3% p.a.
Profit Margin
4%
Future PE
20x
Price in 2028
US$320.04
OFX logo
OFX Group

Positive Outlook

Credit crunch as AI fervor draws high, capital flows to USA in near term, OFX fails to capitalise and innovate owing to infighting in executive team, equity payments instead of direct payments taking money from shareholders over time through buybacks, and other direct transfers from the executives. Although I believe both the CFO and PHC are well suited to their roles, the lack of investment into development and people, as well as high rates of tool and company acquisition have led to massive friction and internal loss.Read more

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AU$2.5
77.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
10% p.a.
Profit Margin
14%
Future PE
15x
Price in 2030
AU$3.3
GOOGL logo
Alphabet

A Fracturing Search Market and Lack of Monetization Will Slow Revenue Growth

Google’s search business faces new threats as more people get answers inside apps and chat-style tools, while rivals like Microsoft make their own search feel “good enough.” The big upside may come from its cloud push, but the story hinges on whether Google can turn its AI products into something people pay for without giving up profits.Read more

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US$216.56
63.7% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
10% p.a.
Profit Margin
30%
Future PE
21x
Price in 2029
US$314.8
ADBE logo
Adobe

ADBE Market Outlook

Adobe’s creative and document tools sit at the center of how people and businesses make and share digital content, but a new wave of simpler and cheaper rivals is putting pressure on its old playbook. The key question is whether Adobe can turn its new AI features into real customer wins fast enough while the economy and competition both stay tough.Read more

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US$523.13
55.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
8.58% p.a.
Profit Margin
25.85%
Future PE
34.09x
Price in 2030
US$701.74
CHRS logo
Coherus Oncology

Coherus BioSciences will see 16% revenue growth driving future value

Coherus is a promising company that did a bad borrowing and has more than paid the price. Its convertible bondholders created a short hedge and have inflicted massive damage on the company's SP.Read more

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US$15.42
91.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
16% p.a.
Profit Margin
19.59%
Future PE
26.23x
Price in 2029
US$22.17
XEQT logo
iShares Core Equity ETF Portfolio

Vanguard Growth ETF Portfolio (VGRO)

Overview VGRO is a diversified, low-cost ETF designed for long-term growth. It holds a mix of Canadian, U.S., and international equities , along with some fixed-income assets to provide stability.Read more

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CA$35
28.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
N/A
Profit Margin
27.42%
Future PE
14.47x
Price in 2031
CA$0
RDDT logo
Reddit

Advertising, Data Licensing and User Economy Could Be Enough to Drive Revenue Growth, If Successful

Reddit’s biggest upside may be simple: it has a huge audience, but it still struggles to turn that attention into reliable ad results, leaving room for a turnaround if the ad product improves. At the same time, selling access to its user conversations could open a new revenue line—while also inviting pushback from regulators and risking the platform’s long-term value.Read more

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US$38
387.5% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
17.3%
Future PE
28x
Price in 2029
US$67.87