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US$65
FV
14.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
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US$11
56.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
14.69%
Future PE
20.84x
Price in 2029
US$13.45
AU$7.96
39.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
16.75% p.a.
Profit Margin
27.94%
Future PE
14.35x
Price in 2031
AU$11.78
US$38
8.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Fair value estimated using a forward earnings + PE re-rating approach anchored to end-of-2026 price targets. Starting price (6/16/2026): $33.96 Earnings Growth: Blended EPS growth of ~21% (weighted consensus across top holdings — AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, META, GOOGL, TSLA, AVGO, COST, LLY). This reflects strong AI-driven revenue acceleration and margin expansion across the fund's mega-cap growth core. PE Re-Rating: Applied a -5 turn de-rating from current fund-level PE of 34.6x down to ~29–31x forward, reflecting valuation normalization as rates remain elevated and growth premium compresses slightly. Dividend: Added ~$0.07 for 2 remaining quarterly dividends in H2 2026 (~$0.036 each). Base Case Fair Value: ~$35.68–$38.00 (+5% to +12% upside from current price) Bull Case: EPS +26%, PE 32–35x → Price Target $40–42 (+18% to +24%) Bear Case: EPS +12%, PE 22–25x → Price Target $28–30 (-12% to -18%) This methodology deliberately discounts the SWS DCF model output ($120.43) as it relies on 5-year revenue projections (Revenue $59.6B, Margin 28%) that may overestimate long-term ETF-level earnings power. The forward PE + earnings approach better reflects near-term price discovery for a passively managed large-cap growth ETF.
US$28.55
373.8% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
10.55%
Future PE
20x
Price in 2029
US$35.08
Rp3.6k
63.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
39.68% p.a.
Profit Margin
34.07%
Future PE
4.31x
Price in 2031
Rp6.35k
Rp8.34k
24.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
18.98% p.a.
Profit Margin
5.38%
Future PE
7.58x
Price in 2031
Rp14.72k
US$25.46
50.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
13.53% p.a.
Profit Margin
12.3%
Future PE
17x
Price in 2029
US$34.69
CA$532.59
91.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
24.56% p.a.
Profit Margin
62.97%
Future PE
31.14x
Price in 2031
CA$878.94