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Alphabet
BL
BlackGoat
Community Contributor
Alphabet: The Under-appreciated Compounder Hiding in Plain Sight
Summary Google trades at ~18× forward earnings; the cheapest among the Magnificent 7 Market is too focused on AI threats to Search and antitrust noise Meanwhile, Google is executing across AI, Cloud, and YouTube Key AI differentiator: unmatched distribution across 3B+ users via Search, Gmail, YouTube, Android, Chrome, and Cloud Quietly building a world-class AI infrastructure behind the scenes; including proprietary TPUs and a vertically integrated stack YouTube generated $8.93B in Q1 ad revenue (up 10% YoY); subscriptions hit 270M Google Cloud revenue up 28% YoY to $12.3B; now profitable Optionality from long-term bets like Waymo, DeepMind, and Verily Risk/reward is compelling; a strong candidate to beat the market long term Overview Despite being part of the "Magnificent Seven," Google’s stock lags due to perceived risks around disruption of its Search business from AI competitors and mounting antitrust concerns. But under the hood, Google has quietly built one of the most compelling setups in tech: with deep AI leadership, multiple high-growth businesses, and optionality from long-term moonshots like Waymo.
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US$282.83
FV
32.8% undervalued
intrinsic discount
9.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
23
users have liked this narrative
3
users have commented on this narrative
61
users have followed this narrative
Updated
narrative
Planet Labs PBC
AN
andreas_eliades
Community Contributor
Planet Labs: At The Heart Of The Emerging New Space Boom
Planet Labs leads the EO market with the largest satellite constellation, poised to capitalize on the growing demand for Earth Observation and geospatial data from companies and governments. Plunging space launch and GPU computation costs combined with advancements in CubeSat and AI technologies are boosting the utility of Earth Observation data.
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US$11.31
FV
45.4% undervalued
intrinsic discount
30.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
18
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
63
users have followed this narrative
New
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Exxon Mobil
AG
Agricola
Community Contributor
Exxon in Guyana 5 year forecast Low $135 to High $189
Previous mistake rectified. So as pointed out in the comments, Chevron won the Hess bid (rather than Exxon) and took a large portion of the Stabroek block.
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US$174.00
FV
37.0% undervalued
intrinsic discount
12.97%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
4
users have liked this narrative
4
users have commented on this narrative
16
users have followed this narrative
Updated
narrative
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Barclays
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 16 Analysts
Digital Disruption Will Erode Margins Amid Mounting Regulatory Burdens
Key Takeaways Competitive pressures from fintech innovation and open banking may erode Barclays' customer base, fee-based revenues, and long-term profitability. Heightened regulatory demands and persistent legal issues are likely to raise costs, constrain lending, and limit opportunities for meaningful revenue growth.
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UK£2.73
FV
30.6% overvalued
intrinsic discount
6.88%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
1
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
Universal Music Group
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 19 Analysts
Aging Demographics And Regulatory Risks Will Undermine Music Industry
Key Takeaways Demographic shifts and disruptive technologies threaten long-term revenue growth by reducing traditional music consumption and undermining Universal's gatekeeper role. Regulatory pressures and platform consolidation risk squeezing margins through increased costs and unfavorable revenue splits as the industry landscape evolves.
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€22.00
FV
9.4% overvalued
intrinsic discount
6.05%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
1
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 15 Analysts
Legacy Thermal Systems Will Crumble Under Renewable Pressure
Key Takeaways Heavy reliance on legacy thermal power and cyclical sectors heightens risk of structural decline amid global energy transition and shifting public investment trends. Persistent project execution issues and intensifying competition threaten margins, profitability, and long-term international market positioning.
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JP¥2.68k
FV
34.3% overvalued
intrinsic discount
6.38%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
Honda Motor
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 16 Analysts
Rising Tariffs And EV Delays Will Erode Competitiveness
Key Takeaways Weakness in electric vehicle strategy and mounting competition threaten long-term growth, with Honda at risk of losing market share and facing sustained earnings pressure. Tariffs, volatile trade policies, and costly innovation strain margins and cash flow, while high capital requirements and macroeconomic headwinds limit profitability and shareholder returns.
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JP¥1.23k
FV
27.8% overvalued
intrinsic discount
-1.16%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
Deutsche Post
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 17 Analysts
Europe Regulations And Digital Shifts Will Erode Logistics Margins
Key Takeaways Stricter environmental regulation, digitalization, and industry overcapacity are set to increase costs and squeeze margins for Deutsche Post. Shifting trade dynamics, declining mail volumes, and tech-driven competition threaten the stability and growth potential of core revenue streams.
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€34.00
FV
12.6% overvalued
intrinsic discount
1.47%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
1
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
BAE Systems
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 16 Analysts
Geopolitical Pressures Will Hurt Future Defense Profits Slightly
Key Takeaways Shifting political priorities and increased ESG pressure may limit funding, strain earnings growth, and threaten BAE's valuation stability. Contract delays, export scrutiny, and supply chain issues could create profit volatility, even as defense budgets remain strong.
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UK£13.13
FV
38.4% overvalued
intrinsic discount
10.13%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
Bayerische Motoren Werke
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 21 Analysts
Compliance Costs And EV Lag Will Diminish Value
Key Takeaways Lagging in electric vehicle transition and heavy reliance on internal combustion engines risk market share and margin compression amid shifting regulations and consumer preferences. High dependence on China and ongoing supply chain uncertainties undermine revenue predictability and expose the company to intensified competition and regulatory risks.
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€65.65
FV
25.0% overvalued
intrinsic discount
-1.22%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
Wesfarmers
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 13 Analysts
E-commerce Decline And Margin Squeeze Will Hinder Growth Despite Digitization
Key Takeaways Rising digital disruption and demographic shifts threaten to reduce retail revenues and limit long-term growth across Wesfarmers' core businesses. Sustained investment needs and intense competition are set to pressure margins, cash flow, and overall profitability, with international diversification efforts offering limited near-term relief.
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AU$58.00
FV
46.5% overvalued
intrinsic discount
4.27%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
1
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
Bajaj Finance
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 34 Analysts
Rising Costs And Regulation Will Constrain Credit Growth Amid Headroom
Key Takeaways Intensifying competition, regulatory tightening, and digital disruption threaten margins, market share, and the sustainability of earnings growth. Heavy reliance on unsecured consumer lending heightens vulnerability to economic slowdowns and shifts in consumer behavior.
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₹719.25
FV
21.7% overvalued
intrinsic discount
29.14%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
1
users have followed this narrative
11 days ago
author updated this narrative
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