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Alphabet
BL
BlackGoat
Community Contributor
Alphabet: The Under-appreciated Compounder Hiding in Plain Sight
Summary Google trades at ~18× forward earnings; the cheapest among the Magnificent 7 Market is too focused on AI threats to Search and antitrust noise Meanwhile, Google is executing across AI, Cloud, and YouTube Key AI differentiator: unmatched distribution across 3B+ users via Search, Gmail, YouTube, Android, Chrome, and Cloud Quietly building a world-class AI infrastructure behind the scenes; including proprietary TPUs and a vertically integrated stack YouTube generated $8.93B in Q1 ad revenue (up 10% YoY); subscriptions hit 270M Google Cloud revenue up 28% YoY to $12.3B; now profitable Optionality from long-term bets like Waymo, DeepMind, and Verily Risk/reward is compelling; a strong candidate to beat the market long term Overview Despite being part of the "Magnificent Seven," Google’s stock lags due to perceived risks around disruption of its Search business from AI competitors and mounting antitrust concerns. But under the hood, Google has quietly built one of the most compelling setups in tech: with deep AI leadership, multiple high-growth businesses, and optionality from long-term moonshots like Waymo.
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US$282.83
FV
32.8% undervalued
intrinsic discount
9.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
19
users have liked this narrative
3
users have commented on this narrative
54
users have followed this narrative
Updated
narrative
Planet Labs PBC
AN
andreas_eliades
Community Contributor
Planet Labs: At The Heart Of The Emerging New Space Boom
Planet Labs leads the EO market with the largest satellite constellation, poised to capitalize on the growing demand for Earth Observation and geospatial data from companies and governments. Plunging space launch and GPU computation costs combined with advancements in CubeSat and AI technologies are boosting the utility of Earth Observation data.
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US$11.31
FV
45.4% undervalued
intrinsic discount
30.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
18
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
58
users have followed this narrative
New
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Exxon Mobil
AG
Agricola
Community Contributor
Exxon in Guyana 5 year forecast Low $135 to High $189
Previous mistake rectified. So as pointed out in the comments, Chevron won the Hess bid (rather than Exxon) and took a large portion of the Stabroek block.
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US$174.00
FV
37.0% undervalued
intrinsic discount
12.97%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
3
users have liked this narrative
4
users have commented on this narrative
14
users have followed this narrative
Updated
narrative
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Oriental Land
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 13 Analysts
Aging Japan And Climate Impact Will Erode Margins
Key Takeaways Demographic decline and rising labor costs in Japan are set to constrain both attendance growth and margins, challenging sustained revenue and earnings expansion. Significant capital spending and dependency on a single Disney-branded location increase financial risks and exposure to operational disruptions and shifting travel patterns.
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JP¥2.70k
FV
17.6% overvalued
intrinsic discount
2.38%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
9 days ago
author updated this narrative
People's Insurance Company (Group) of China
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 14 Analysts
Aging Demographics And Elevated Risks Will Undermine Future Performance
Key Takeaways An aging population, climate risks, and regulatory pressures constrain premium growth, raise costs, and threaten profitability for traditional insurance operations. Digital disruption and over-dependence on motor insurance expose PICC to severe competition, potential market share loss, and increased volatility in revenue and margins.
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HK$3.92
FV
52.8% overvalued
intrinsic discount
5.23%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
9 days ago
author updated this narrative
Advantest
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 19 Analysts
Semiconductor Fragmentation And Rising Protectionism Will Undermine Long-Term Outlook
Key Takeaways Heavy reliance on a few major clients and growing industry self-reliance risk unpredictable revenue drops and margin pressure. Rising costs from technological upgrades and stricter ESG demands threaten long-term profitability and free cash flow.
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JP¥6.00k
FV
70.3% overvalued
intrinsic discount
0.082%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
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9 days ago
author updated this narrative
Lloyds Banking Group
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 18 Analysts
Digital Disruption And Regulatory Pressures Will Harm The UK Mortgage Market
Key Takeaways Accelerating fintech disruption and regulatory pressures threaten Lloyds' market share, squeezing profitability and increasing costs amid rising technological and compliance demands. Heavy reliance on the UK mortgage market and lagging digital transformation expose Lloyds to greater risk from local downturns and agile, tech-savvy competitors.
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UK£0.59
FV
27.8% overvalued
intrinsic discount
6.47%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
1
users have followed this narrative
9 days ago
author updated this narrative
Haleon
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 17 Analysts
Rising Regulatory Costs And Shifting Consumer Preferences Will Undermine Performance
Key Takeaways Rising regulatory costs and evolving health guidelines threaten margins, while core product reformulation may constrain long-term earnings and growth. Shifting consumer preferences and weak innovation expose Haleon to declining demand, competitive pressures, and limited ability to defend its leading brands.
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UK£3.20
FV
14.1% overvalued
intrinsic discount
2.40%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
9 days ago
author updated this narrative
BASF
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 21 Analysts
Rising Compliance Costs And Political Risks Will Shrink Margins
Key Takeaways Stricter regulations and decarbonization efforts are set to shrink BASF's margins and erode demand for its core chemical and plastics products. Overcapacity, higher energy costs, and weak global demand create earnings volatility and challenge future profitability across BASF's traditional business segments.
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€38.00
FV
9.9% overvalued
intrinsic discount
-0.15%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
1
users have followed this narrative
9 days ago
author updated this narrative
Compagnie de Saint-Gobain
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 16 Analysts
Global Construction Headwinds Will Erode Margins Yet Spark Modest Improvements
Key Takeaways Deglobalization, supply chain disruptions, and rising compliance costs threaten to erode margins and revenue growth for Saint-Gobain. Disruptive technologies and intensified competition increase risks of product substitution, weaker cash flows, and stranded manufacturing assets.
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€75.79
FV
20.0% overvalued
intrinsic discount
2.16%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
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9 days ago
author updated this narrative
Dassault Systèmes
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 18 Analysts
Rising Regulation And Competition Will Curb Cloud Traction
Key Takeaways Intensifying regulatory demands, competition, and shifting customer preferences threaten future recurring revenue, market share, and margin expansion. Challenges in transitioning to cloud subscriptions and open ecosystems may dilute margins and erode pricing power in key business segments.
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€27.00
FV
3.5% overvalued
intrinsic discount
6.12%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
9 days ago
author updated this narrative
China Pacific Insurance (Group)
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 15 Analysts
Aging, Climate Risks And Digital Lag Will Hurt Margins
Key Takeaways Demographic shifts and climate change are limiting policy growth and increasing claims, undermining both revenue and profitability. Slow digital transformation and outdated distribution models are raising costs and reducing competitiveness, weakening long-term earnings potential.
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CN¥26.00
FV
42.7% overvalued
intrinsic discount
2.63%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
9 days ago
author updated this narrative
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