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US$65
FV
12.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
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US$1.2
98.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
Profit Margin
13.5%
Future PE
35.64x
Price in 2031
US$2.15
UK£35.51
11.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
4.8% p.a.
Profit Margin
7%
Future PE
13.5x
Price in 2031
UK£49.96
₺63.94
40.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
23% p.a.
Profit Margin
24.5%
Future PE
31x
Price in 2031
₺0
US$0.2
1.1k% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
-1.83% p.a.
Profit Margin
3.14%
Future PE
9.57x
Price in 2031
US$0
DKK 96.02
54.1% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
4.24% p.a.
Profit Margin
2.36%
Future PE
114.74x
Price in 2031
DKK 131.64
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Cango

Cango’s Shift Toward Distributed Compute

Cango Inc. (NYSE: CANG) is being priced like a leftover China-inc auto-finance story that lost relevance years ago.Read more

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US$0.2
10.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
4.52%
Future PE
15.58x
Price in 2031
US$0.34