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Trending Discussion

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How likely is RKLT to rise 25% by the launch?

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ST

Interesting analysis, but the price trajectory assumed for the baseline metals is problematic. These assumptions form the foundation for the entire case, and when compared against historical pricing, don’t appear to be grounded in any reasonable precedent. Even accounting for past commodity super-cycles, inflationary periods, or supply constraints, the forecasted pricing for gold, silver, zinc, and lead are well outside what history would suggest is plausible over comparable timeframes. That creates a fragile premise as the conclusions are driven by aggressive inputs rather than underlying market behavior that is realistic. The analysis would be materially stronger if the price assumptions were anchored to historical ranges and prior cycle peaks, with explicit rationale where the model intentionally departs from those patterns. As it stands, the trajectory feels more aspirational than analytical.

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JA

Very nice analysis. Thank you for this piece of work.

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