Shopify

Massive Social Commerce Tailwinds Promise Shopify's Future Growth

nav

Not Invested

Community Contributor

Published

19 Sep 25

Updated

21 Nov 25

Views

293

n/a

nav's Fair Value

n/a

57.9%

0.7%

57.9%

0.7%

You can edit this narrative until Nov 22 3:15 AM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

US$186.648.5% undervalued

nav's Fair Value

Narrative

Updates1

Shared on 21 Nov 25

Fair value Increased 6.86%

Resilient performance despite tariff and consumer sentiment pressure

Shopify’s Q3 2025 results (reported 4 Nov 2025) showed revenue growth of ~32% and GMV up ~32% despite the challenging backdrop. The The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index shows the expectations component at 71.5 (October 2025) which is below the ~80 level typically seen as a signal of recession risk.

nav'sFair Value

US$186.64

8.5% undervalued

Future estimation in

Growth p.a.

Decrease

Increase

Current revenue growth rate

19.26%

IT revenue growth rate

0.51%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

8.47%

Calculation

US$4.41b

Earnings '30

84.30x

PE Ratio '30

US$372.13b

Market Cap '30

US$372.13b

Market Cap '30

1.34b

No. shares '30

US$278.22

Share Price '30

US$278.22 Share Price '30

Discounted to 2025 @ 8.31% p.a.

US$186.64

Fair Value '25