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Resilient performance despite tariff and consumer sentiment pressure

Update shared on 21 Nov 2025

Fair value Increased 6.86%
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nav's Fair Value
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1Y
38.2%
7D
1.2%
  • Shopify’s Q3 2025 results (reported 4 Nov 2025) showed revenue growth of ~32% and GMV up ~32% despite the challenging backdrop. 
  • The The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index shows the expectations component at 71.5 (October 2025) which is below the ~80 level typically seen as a signal of recession risk. This may have a lagging impact on revenue growth.
  • At least for now, increase revenue growth rate to 12% as quarterly results stronger than expected.

Disclaimer

nav is an employee of Simply Wall St, but has written this narrative in their capacity as an individual investor. nav holds no position in NasdaqGS:SHOP. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimate's are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.