Pagaya Technologies

The "Rate Cut" Supercycle Winner – Profitable & Accelerating

Talos

Invested

Community Contributor

Published

02 Dec 25

Updated

10 Feb 26

Views

257

10 Feb

US$13.08

Talos's Fair Value

US$50.82

74.3% undervalued

-14.3%

-3.8%

-14.3%

-3.8%

You can edit this narrative until Feb 11 3:30 PM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

US$50.8274.3% undervalued

Talos's Fair Value

Shared on 10 Feb 26

Fair value Decreased 70%

The Infrastructure Scale-Up: From "Growth at All Costs" to "Deep Value & Reliability"

Pagaya Technologies ($PGY) has successfully transitioned from a speculative high-growth SPAC to a profitable, critical infrastructure partner for the US banking system. The Q4 2025 results confirmed a pivotal shift: Management proactively cut $1.5B in risky volume to prioritize margin quality, proving they are disciplined stewards of capital.

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Valuator

Company Info

Notes

Talos'sFair Value

US$50.82

74.3% undervalued

Future estimation in

Revenue

Profit Margin

Future PE

Est. Revenue

Forecast revenue growth rate

12.41%

Historical revenue growth rate

25.51%

Software revenue growth rate

1.53%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

10.75%

Calculation

US$292.02m

Earnings '29

22.00x

PE Ratio '29

US$6.42b

Market Cap '29

US$6.42b

Market Cap '29

96.28m

No. shares '29

US$66.73

Share Price '29

US$66.73 Share Price '29

Discounted to 2026 @ 9.50% p.a.

US$50.82

Fair Value '26