Last Update 01 Nov 25

Fair value Increased 1.40%

CrowdStrike Holdings' analyst price target was raised slightly to approximately $506, reflecting ongoing momentum in cybersecurity demand as well as analysts' increased confidence in the company's growth trajectory and product innovation.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research notes show that sentiment among Wall Street analysts remains largely positive on CrowdStrike Holdings, although some caution persists regarding valuation and near-term risks. The following sections summarize the key bullish and bearish takeaways from the latest analyst updates.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts continue to raise price targets, with some moving them as high as $600 or more. This reflects confidence in CrowdStrike's growth trajectory and expanding product suite.
There is growing optimism about the company's ability to deliver accelerating annual recurring revenue growth and maintain its market leadership in endpoint and cloud security.
Several notes highlight success in new areas such as AI, security consolidation, and agentic frameworks. This suggests expanding addressable markets and multiple growth drivers.
Analysts cited a robust Q3 deal pipeline, positive partner and customer feedback, and strong execution at recent conferences as evidence that CrowdStrike is well-positioned to capitalize on broader cybersecurity spending trends.

Bearish Takeaways

Despite strong fundamentals, some bearish analysts express concern over the company's premium valuation and caution that long-term multiples may be stretched.
There is some skepticism about the immediate translation of net new annual recurring revenue into future revenues, especially as new products and Flex purchasing models ramp up.
A handful of notes mention mixed feedback regarding adoption in specific segments like Next-Gen Identity and AI, as well as limited detail on new product announcements relative to expectations.
Recent price target reductions, though typically slight, reflect ongoing debate over near-term revenue growth and the potential for modest downside if current momentum is not sustained.

What's in the News

CrowdStrike announced a strategic partnership with BT to provide BT Business Antivirus Detect and Respond, a new cybersecurity service for UK small and medium-sized businesses. This service is designed to deliver AI-powered protection and expert support. (Key Developments)
CrowdStrike is collaborating with NVIDIA to bring always-on, continuously learning AI agents for cybersecurity to the edge. This collaboration leverages AI models and microservices to strengthen real-time threat detection and response across cloud, data center, and edge environments. (Key Developments)
KPMG expanded its cybersecurity services with CrowdStrike’s Falcon platform, including integration of Next-Gen SIEM and Engagement Licensing Program. This expansion is aimed at accelerating SOC transformation and unifying client security operations. (Key Developments)
CrowdStrike announced new innovations in its Falcon Next-Gen Identity Security and Falcon Data Protection platforms. These enhancements strengthen unified protection against threats targeting human, non-human, and AI agent identities and safeguard data in dynamic and AI-driven environments. (Key Developments)
CrowdStrike unveiled Threat AI, an agentic threat intelligence system that automates complex intelligence workflows to accelerate analyst detection, response, and threat hunting. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

The Fair Value Estimate has increased slightly, rising from $498.91 to $505.91 per share.
The Discount Rate has decreased marginally, moving from 8.44% to 8.42%.
Revenue Growth projections have increased very slightly, from 21.91% to 21.93%.
The Net Profit Margin is virtually unchanged, edging up from 6.24% to 6.24%.
The Future Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio has risen slightly, up from 343.67x to 347.94x.

Strategic innovations like Falcon Flex and AI tools are enhancing customer relationships and efficiency, leading to potential revenue growth and improved margins.
Strong cloud partnerships and investments in security products position CrowdStrike for significant market expansion and sustained demand.
Execution risks from reliance on emerging products and acquisitions might impact revenue growth if these products underperform.

Catalysts

About CrowdStrike Holdings

Provides cybersecurity solutions in the United States and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The introduction of Falcon Flex, a subscription model that accelerates module adoption and simplifies procurement, is increasing customer commitment and lengthening customer relationships, potentially leading to increased future revenue and improved net margins due to larger, bundled sales.
CrowdStrike's AI offerings, such as Charlotte, and their innovation in AI capabilities are driving efficiency and operational enhancements both internally and for customers, which could improve future earnings by lowering operational costs and increasing customer satisfaction.
The company's ongoing success with cloud and partner ecosystems, including surpassing $1 billion in AWS Marketplace sales, indicates strong growth potential in cloud-derived revenues and faster deal cycles, enhancing revenue streams and market penetration.
Investments in emerging products like Exposure Management, Cloud Security, and Identity Protection that replace legacy systems indicate potential for significant ARR growth, impacting future revenues positively.
The strategic focus on Next-Gen SIEM, cloud-native security, and large-scale partnerships, along with CrowdStrike's expansive data capabilities for AI development, positions the company for robust demand growth, which can drive revenue and contract value higher in future periods.

CrowdStrike Holdings Earnings and Revenue Growth

CrowdStrike Holdings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming CrowdStrike Holdings's revenue will grow by 22.1% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -6.8% today to 8.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $691.1 million (and earnings per share of $2.54) by about September 2028, up from $-297.0 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 232.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from -357.9x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.2x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.38% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.41%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

CrowdStrike Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

There is a risk that CrowdStrike's reported forward-looking statements may not materialize as expected due to uncertainties, which could negatively impact future revenue and earnings.
The financial results and projections include significant non-GAAP adjustments, which may mask potential volatility and impact perceptions of net margins and profitability.
Competitive pressures in the cloud security market and the need for rapid innovation may increase operational costs, potentially impacting operating margins and free cash flow.
The reliance on emerging products and recent acquisitions, such as Adaptive Shield, to drive growth could introduce execution risks that might affect revenue growth if these products do not perform as anticipated.
Any failure to successfully execute the Falcon Flex subscription model or to maintain high customer retention rates could negatively affect the company's ARR growth and long-term revenue projections.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $469.159 for CrowdStrike Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $610.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $330.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $7.9 billion, earnings will come to $691.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 232.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.4%.
Given the current share price of $423.51, the analyst price target of $469.16 is 9.7% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.