Last Update29 Aug 25
Fair value Decreased 2.80%

Analysts have modestly lowered their price target for CrowdStrike Holdings to $468.95, citing mixed revenue outperformance and questions around the translation of strong net-new ARR into long-term growth, despite continued momentum in key segments and robust cybersecurity demand.

Analyst Commentary

Net-new annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth remains a bright spot, particularly in Cloud Security, Next-Gen Identity, and SIEM, driving optimism for sequential ARR acceleration and positioning Flex as a future growth lever.
Mixed results for recent quarters, including modest beats on ARR but less robust outperformance on revenue, prompting analysts to reduce price targets despite maintaining positive ratings; guidance for the second half of the year is seen as strong but overall fiscal year outlook lacks significant upward revisions.
Ongoing questions persist about how recent strong net new ARR translates into long-term revenue growth, especially for FY27, with some analysts concerned about the magnitude of potential upside or downside to forward estimates.
CrowdStrike continues to benefit from robust cybersecurity spending and strong channel feedback, highlighted by successful promotion of Falcon Flex and Next-Gen SIEM deals, supporting long-term confidence among bullish analysts.
Bearish analysts express caution over conservative management guidance, near-term impacts from prior incidents, and ongoing lack of clear macro headwinds, while growing Q2 subscription revenues and improving margins offer some offsetting positives.

What's in the News

CrowdStrike delivered positive financial outlooks, projecting Q3 FY26 revenue of $1.21–$1.22 billion and FY26 total revenue of $4.75–$4.81 billion, and authorized a $1 billion share repurchase program with no set expiration (Key Developments).
The company unveiled numerous AI-driven product enhancements, including Falcon Next-Gen Identity Security (addressing human, non-human, and AI agent identities across hybrid environments), general availability of Falcon Signal (AI-powered threat detection), and new integrations with OpenAI ChatGPT Enterprise and NVIDIA LLM platforms to secure AI and SaaS environments (Key Developments).
CrowdStrike expanded its partnerships, collaborating with AWS to streamline and secure AI adoption, and teaming with Portnox and Microsoft for enhanced network access control and unified threat actor attribution, fostering more effective industry-wide threat response (Key Developments).
Client-focused initiatives included launching Falcon for AWS Security Incident Response to offer integrated AI-powered incident response in the AWS Marketplace, partnering with Absolute Security for endpoint resilience, and collaborating with Resilience, Inc. to deliver data-driven risk mitigation and improved cyber insurance terms (Key Developments).
The U.S. District Court of Western Texas dismissed a consumer class action against CrowdStrike related to a 2024 airline software outage, citing federal preemption, while heightened global focus on cybersecurity was underscored by reports of nation-state cyberattacks, mentioning CrowdStrike as a leading industry player (Key Developments & Bloomberg).

Valuation Changes

Summary of Valuation Changes for CrowdStrike Holdings

The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen slightly from $482.69 to $468.95.
The Future P/E for CrowdStrike Holdings has significantly fallen from 264.01x to 228.95x.
The Net Profit Margin for CrowdStrike Holdings has risen from 8.05% to 8.82%.

Strategic innovations like Falcon Flex and AI tools are enhancing customer relationships and efficiency, leading to potential revenue growth and improved margins.
Strong cloud partnerships and investments in security products position CrowdStrike for significant market expansion and sustained demand.
Execution risks from reliance on emerging products and acquisitions might impact revenue growth if these products underperform.

Catalysts

About CrowdStrike Holdings

Provides cybersecurity solutions in the United States and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The introduction of Falcon Flex, a subscription model that accelerates module adoption and simplifies procurement, is increasing customer commitment and lengthening customer relationships, potentially leading to increased future revenue and improved net margins due to larger, bundled sales.
CrowdStrike's AI offerings, such as Charlotte, and their innovation in AI capabilities are driving efficiency and operational enhancements both internally and for customers, which could improve future earnings by lowering operational costs and increasing customer satisfaction.
The company's ongoing success with cloud and partner ecosystems, including surpassing $1 billion in AWS Marketplace sales, indicates strong growth potential in cloud-derived revenues and faster deal cycles, enhancing revenue streams and market penetration.
Investments in emerging products like Exposure Management, Cloud Security, and Identity Protection that replace legacy systems indicate potential for significant ARR growth, impacting future revenues positively.
The strategic focus on Next-Gen SIEM, cloud-native security, and large-scale partnerships, along with CrowdStrike's expansive data capabilities for AI development, positions the company for robust demand growth, which can drive revenue and contract value higher in future periods.

CrowdStrike Holdings Earnings and Revenue Growth

CrowdStrike Holdings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming CrowdStrike Holdings's revenue will grow by 22.1% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -6.8% today to 8.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $691.1 million (and earnings per share of $2.54) by about September 2028, up from $-297.0 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 232.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from -357.9x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.2x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.38% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.41%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

CrowdStrike Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

There is a risk that CrowdStrike's reported forward-looking statements may not materialize as expected due to uncertainties, which could negatively impact future revenue and earnings.
The financial results and projections include significant non-GAAP adjustments, which may mask potential volatility and impact perceptions of net margins and profitability.
Competitive pressures in the cloud security market and the need for rapid innovation may increase operational costs, potentially impacting operating margins and free cash flow.
The reliance on emerging products and recent acquisitions, such as Adaptive Shield, to drive growth could introduce execution risks that might affect revenue growth if these products do not perform as anticipated.
Any failure to successfully execute the Falcon Flex subscription model or to maintain high customer retention rates could negatively affect the company's ARR growth and long-term revenue projections.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $469.159 for CrowdStrike Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $610.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $330.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $7.9 billion, earnings will come to $691.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 232.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.4%.
Given the current share price of $423.51, the analyst price target of $469.16 is 9.7% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.