Last Update 03 Dec 25

HEPS: Customer And Merchant Expansion Will Drive Future Share Price Recovery

The analyst price target for D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret has been cut to $3.07 from $4.85, as analysts cite the company’s pivot toward customer and merchant acquisition over cash flow, ongoing profitability pressures, and heightened uncertainty around future cash generation and strategic visibility.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts remain divided on the near term outlook for D Market Elektronik, with the recent price target cut reflecting both execution risks and the potential for longer term growth if the company can successfully scale its customer and merchant base.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts view the pivot toward customer and merchant acquisition as a necessary investment phase that could expand the platform's long term addressable market and support higher revenue growth.
The new price target still implies upside from current trading levels, suggesting that the market may be over discounting near term cash flow pressures relative to medium term growth prospects.
Execution on user and seller growth initiatives in Q4 and 2026 is seen as a potential catalyst for a re rating if engagement and transaction volumes accelerate ahead of expectations.
Improved strategic clarity around monetization and margin recovery could quickly close the valuation gap versus regional peers if management can deliver a credible roadmap.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts highlight that the shift away from cash flow optimization increases execution risk and extends the timeline to sustainable profitability, pressuring valuation multiples.
Ongoing uncertainty around future cash generation and limited strategic visibility into the post investment margin profile raise concerns about the durability of the business model.
The expectation that operating challenges will persist through Q4 and into 2026 suggests a prolonged period of subdued share performance with limited near term catalysts.
Without clearer targets on unit economics and payback periods for customer and merchant acquisition, some investors may demand a higher risk premium, capping multiple expansion.

What's in the News

Shareholders at the November 17, 2025 Extraordinary General Assembly approved an increase in D Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret’s total share capital, including provisions on pre emptive rights under Article 461/2 of the Turkish Commercial Code, and revised Article 6 on share capital in the Articles of Association (Extraordinary General Assembly resolution).
The same meeting approved amendments to Article 3 (Line of Business and Objective), Article 18 (General Assembly), and Article 29 (Compliance with Corporate Governance Principles), signaling an update to the company’s governance framework and strategic scope (Extraordinary General Assembly resolution).
Prior to the meeting, the Board of Directors formally called the November 17, 2025 Extraordinary General Assembly to seek shareholder approval for the capital increase and governance related amendments, outlining the “New Text” of the affected articles (Board of Directors call for Extraordinary General Assembly).
The November 17, 2025 Extraordinary General Assembly agenda included standard procedural items, authorization of the meeting chair to sign minutes, discussion of the capital increase and pre emptive rights, and consideration of amendments to key governance articles before recommendations and closing (Extraordinary General Assembly agenda).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate: Unchanged at approximately $3.47 per share, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value assessment despite the updated assumptions.
Discount Rate: Fallen slightly from about 15.97 percent to 15.94 percent, reflecting a marginally lower required return in the valuation model.
Revenue Growth: Effectively unchanged at around 34.27 percent, suggesting expectations for topline expansion remain stable.
Net Profit Margin: Risen slightly from roughly 8.59 percent to 8.73 percent, implying a modestly more optimistic outlook on future profitability.
Future P/E: Fallen slightly from about 5.78x to 5.70x, indicating a marginal reduction in the multiple applied to projected earnings.

HepsiJet's expanded delivery services and successful Hepsipay integration drive revenue and improve margins through higher off-platform volume and financial service transactions.
Strategic partnerships, including a stake transition to Kaspi and collaboration with Warner Bros., enhance customer engagement and operational efficiency, boosting long-term growth.
Economic challenges, boycotts, and rising costs could hinder revenue growth and profitability, while shifts in operations may affect future earnings.

Catalysts

About D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret

D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret A.S.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Expansion of HepsiJet's delivery services, emphasizing increased off-platform volume by 89% year-on-year, which drives up revenue through higher delivery service income.
Growth in Hepsipay's one-click checkout integration, reaching 140 key accounts. This can increase transaction volume and user adoption, boosting overall earnings and potentially improving net margins through higher-margin financial services.
Strategic partnership with Warner Bros. Discovery to enhance Hepsiburada's loyalty program, aiming to boost customer retention and transaction frequency, thereby driving increased revenues and potentially higher net margins due to recurring customer engagement.
Transition of a controlling stake to Kaspi, a leading payments and marketplace ecosystem in Kazakhstan, which could bring synergies and innovations that enhance Hepsiburada's product offerings and operational efficiency, positively impacting long-term revenue growth and margin enhancement.
Significant growth in lending solutions, with total lending volume reaching TRY 16.2 billion in 2024, up 2.6x from 2023. This diversification into financial services is likely to boost earnings and improve net margins through higher-margin financial products.

D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret Earnings and Revenue Growth

D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret's revenue will grow by 32.4% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -3.4% today to 6.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach TRY 8.4 billion (and earnings per share of TRY 4.55) by about September 2028, up from TRY -2.0 billion today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 9.4x on those 2028 earnings, up from -18.0x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Multiline Retail industry at 20.9x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.71% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 15.72%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Macroeconomic headwinds at the start of 2025 are pressuring consumer purchasing power, which could negatively impact revenue growth.
The ongoing boycotts against shopping activities have constrained marketing and sales performance, potentially reducing revenue.
Increased payroll, shipping, and packaging expenses, as well as higher operating expenses, could pressure net margins despite improved gross contribution.
A decrease in free cash flow due to a reduction in net cash from operating activities and increased CapEx could limit future investment opportunities, impacting earnings.
The shift to marketplace operations (3P) and away from 1P operations may lead to lower profit margins if not managed effectively, impacting overall earnings.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of TRY4.066 for D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of TRY4.63, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just TRY2.97.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be TRY136.4 billion, earnings will come to TRY8.4 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 9.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 15.7%.
Given the current share price of TRY2.71, the analyst price target of TRY4.07 is 33.4% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Expanding Delivery, Checkout And Lending Will Build Future Success