HEPS: Customer And Merchant Expansion Will Drive Future Share Price Recovery

The analyst price target for D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret has been cut to $3.07 from $4.85, as analysts cite the company’s pivot toward customer and merchant acquisition over cash flow, ongoing profitability pressures, and heightened uncertainty around future cash generation and strategic visibility.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts remain divided on the near term outlook for D Market Elektronik, with the recent price target cut reflecting both execution risks and the potential for longer term growth if the company can successfully scale its customer and merchant base.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts view the pivot toward customer and merchant acquisition as a necessary investment phase that could expand the platform's long term addressable market and support higher revenue growth.
• The new price target still implies upside from current trading levels, suggesting that the market may be over discounting near term cash flow pressures relative to medium term growth prospects.
• Execution on user and seller growth initiatives in Q4 and 2026 is seen as a potential catalyst for a re rating if engagement and transaction volumes accelerate ahead of expectations.
• Improved strategic clarity around monetization and margin recovery could quickly close the valuation gap versus regional peers if management can deliver a credible roadmap.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts highlight that the shift away from cash flow optimization increases execution risk and extends the timeline to sustainable profitability, pressuring valuation multiples.
• Ongoing uncertainty around future cash generation and limited strategic visibility into the post investment margin profile raise concerns about the durability of the business model.
• The expectation that operating challenges will persist through Q4 and into 2026 suggests a prolonged period of subdued share performance with limited near term catalysts.
• Without clearer targets on unit economics and payback periods for customer and merchant acquisition, some investors may demand a higher risk premium, capping multiple expansion.

What's in the News

• Shareholders at the November 17, 2025 Extraordinary General Assembly approved an increase in D Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret’s total share capital, including provisions on pre emptive rights under Article 461/2 of the Turkish Commercial Code, and revised Article 6 on share capital in the Articles of Association (Extraordinary General Assembly resolution).
• The same meeting approved amendments to Article 3 (Line of Business and Objective), Article 18 (General Assembly), and Article 29 (Compliance with Corporate Governance Principles), signaling an update to the company’s governance framework and strategic scope (Extraordinary General Assembly resolution).
• Prior to the meeting, the Board of Directors formally called the November 17, 2025 Extraordinary General Assembly to seek shareholder approval for the capital increase and governance related amendments, outlining the “New Text” of the affected articles (Board of Directors call for Extraordinary General Assembly).
• The November 17, 2025 Extraordinary General Assembly agenda included standard procedural items, authorization of the meeting chair to sign minutes, discussion of the capital increase and pre emptive rights, and consideration of amendments to key governance articles before recommendations and closing (Extraordinary General Assembly agenda).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate: Unchanged at approximately $3.47 per share, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value assessment despite the updated assumptions.
• Discount Rate: Fallen slightly from about 15.97 percent to 15.94 percent, reflecting a marginally lower required return in the valuation model.
• Revenue Growth: Effectively unchanged at around 34.27 percent, suggesting expectations for topline expansion remain stable.
• Net Profit Margin: Risen slightly from roughly 8.59 percent to 8.73 percent, implying a modestly more optimistic outlook on future profitability.
• Future P/E: Fallen slightly from about 5.78x to 5.70x, indicating a marginal reduction in the multiple applied to projected earnings.