Oncology Advancements And Evolving Policy Will Shape Recovery Amid Regulatory Shifts

AN

AnalystConsensusTarget

AnalystConsensusTarget

Not Invested

Based on Analyst Price Targets

Published

09 Feb 25

Updated

07 Dec 25

Views

1k

n/a

n/a

AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value

n/a

1Y

-26.6%

7D

5.9%

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1Y

-26.6%

7D

5.9%

You can edit this narrative until Dec 8 4:10 AM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

US$35.7816.4% undervalued

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 07 Dec 25

Fair value Decreased 4.12%

MRNA: Oncology Pipeline Progress Will Drive Long Term Upside Despite Litigation Risk

Analysts have modestly lowered their price target on Moderna to about $35.78 from $37.32 per share, reflecting slightly softer long term growth and valuation assumptions. This comes even as recent Investor and Analyst Day updates, new debt financing and evolving oncology data support a more stable cash outlook and gradual margin improvement.

Shared on 23 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 7.40%

MRNA: Oncology Pipeline Advances Will Drive Renewed Optimism Despite Regulatory Shifts

Analysts have revised their fair value estimate for Moderna down from approximately $40.30 to $37.32. They cited the company’s updated revenue growth projections and cost outlook, despite improvements in profit margins and continued progress across its commercial and research pipelines.

Shared on 07 Nov 25

MRNA: Oncology Progress Will Drive Renewed Optimism Amid Regulatory Uncertainties

Moderna's analyst price target was reduced from $18 to $15, as analysts pointed to lower US vaccination trends and ongoing regulatory uncertainties that are impacting the outlook for its vaccine franchises. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst notes have reflected both cautious and optimistic perspectives on Moderna's outlook.

Shared on 23 Oct 25

Fair value Decreased 8.93%

Moderna’s analyst price target has been revised downward from $44.25 to $40.30. Analysts cite lower projected revenue growth along with persistent regulatory and profitability challenges, which have been reflected in recent industry commentary.

Shared on 04 Sep 25

Moderna’s consensus price target was held at $44.25 as analysts cited declining US vaccine demand, increased regulatory hurdles for flu/COVID combinations, delayed UK deliveries impacting 2025 guidance, and persistent uncertainty around mRNA vaccine approvals. Analyst Commentary Lowered US vaccination trends for both COVID and flu are reducing addressable market expectations for Moderna’s vaccines.

Shared on 04 Aug 25

Fair value Decreased 7.20%

Despite a marked upgrade in consensus revenue growth forecasts and a notable reduction in future P/E, Moderna's analyst price target has been cut from $47.68 to $44.86. What's in the News Moderna has been dropped from the Russell Top 200 Index and its Value variant, but was simultaneously added to the Russell Midcap Index and Russell Midcap Value Index as part of recent index rebalancing (Key Developments, 2025-06-28/30).

Shared on 07 May 25

Fair value Decreased 1.18%

Shared on 30 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 3.33%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 23 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 0.44%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 16 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 2.32%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased profit margin from 19.3% to 17.3%.

Shared on 09 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 2.04%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 0.9% to 0.6%.

Shared on 02 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 2.06%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 26 Mar 25

Fair value Decreased 2.14%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 1.1% to 0.9%.

Shared on 19 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 13%

AnalystConsensusTarget has increased revenue growth from 0.9% to 1.1%, increased profit margin from 15.8% to 19.6% and decreased future PE multiple from 49.5x to 39.4x.

Shared on 10 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 3.23%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 2.3% to 1.7% and decreased shares outstanding growth rate from 0.0% to 0.0%.

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

US$35.78

16.4% undervalued

Future estimation in

Growth p.a.

Growth p.a.

%

Decrease

Increase

Current revenue growth rate

19.72%

Biotech revenue growth rate

9.67%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

%

0

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

7.14%

Calculation

US$478.96m

Earnings '28

x

37.20x

PE Ratio '28

=

US$17.82b

Market Cap '28

US$17.82b

Market Cap '28

/

405.64m

No. shares '28

=

US$43.93

Share Price '28

US$43.93 Share Price '28

Discounted to 2025 @ 7.13% p.a.

=

US$35.72

Fair Value '25