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Q1 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Revenue Challenges and Strategic amid investor court case

Published
26 Jan 25
Updated
13 Mar 25
WaneInvestmentHouse's Fair Value
US$2.42
47.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
08 May
US$1.28
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1Y
-69.2%
7D
-2.3%

Author's Valuation

US$2.4247.1% undervalued intrinsic discount

WaneInvestmentHouse's Fair Value

Last Update13 Mar 25
Fair value Decreased 52%

WaneInvestmentHouse has increased future PE multiple from 25.5x to 46.0x.

Release Date: May 07, 2025

  • Q1 RYTELO Net Revenues: $39.4 million, down $8 million from Q4.
  • Cash and Marketable Securities: Approximately $457.5 million as of March 31, 2025.
  • Research and Development Expenses: $15.1 million for Q1 2025, down from $29.4 million in Q1 2024.
  • Selling, General, and Administrative Expenses: $40 million for Q1 2025, up from $27.1 million in Q1 2024.
  • Total Operating Expenses Forecast: Expected to be in the range of $270 million to $285 million for fiscal year 2025.
  • US Covered Lives: Approximately 85% under favorable RYTELO medical coverage policies.
  • Sites of Care Utilizing RYTELO: Approximately 900 as of April 2025, an increase of almost 300 new sites since the end of Q4.
  • Demand Growth: 10% increase in the current four-week period ending April 2025 compared to the prior four weeks.

Positive Points

  • RYTELO's US commercial launch is the top corporate priority, with a focus on increasing brand awareness and expanding prescriber base.
  • Geron Corp has a strong financial position with approximately $457.5 million in cash and equivalents as of March 31, 2025.
  • The company is implementing strategic enhancements to support US commercial success, including increasing the sales team by more than 20%.
  • RYTELO has received positive feedback for its efficacy and manageable safety profile, particularly in hard-to-treat lower-risk MDS patients.
  • Geron Corp is pursuing a disciplined approach to EU commercialization, leveraging third-party partnerships to minimize investment.

Negative Points

  • Q1 RYTELO net revenues were $39.4 million, down $8 million from Q4, attributed to inventory drawdown among distributors.
  • Demand for RYTELO was relatively flat, with only a 1% increase in the 13-week period ending March 28 compared to the prior 13 weeks.
  • The company is facing challenges in expanding RYTELO's use in earlier lines of treatment, with most usage currently in the third-line plus setting.
  • There is hesitancy among some healthcare providers to switch patients from standard care to RYTELO, partly due to concerns about cytopenias.
  • There is still in the process of identifying a permanent Chief Executive Officer, with a decision expected within the next six months.

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Disclaimer

The user WaneInvestmentHouse has a position in NasdaqGS:GERN. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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