SEAT: Medium Term GOV Reset Will Support Bullish Repricing

Analysts have cut their price target on Vivid Seats roughly in half to $18, reflecting reduced fair value expectations amid intensified competitive pressures, lower projected gross order volume, and a reset growth outlook.

Analyst Commentary

Despite the sharp reset in official price targets, bullish analysts highlight that the revised ranges continue to imply upside from current trading levels. They argue that the market is already discounting a more challenging competitive environment and slower near term growth.

They also note that management has provided clearer visibility into medium term expectations. This allows investors to recalibrate models around a more conservative but potentially more achievable growth and profitability path.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts argue that the latest price target cuts largely reflect known headwinds, suggesting limited incremental downside risk to valuation if Vivid Seats can stabilize gross order volume and demonstrate share retention.
They see the updated 2026 GOV framework as a realistic base that could be exceeded if competitive intensity moderates or if product and marketing initiatives restore ticketing volumes faster than anticipated.
Several bulls point to management's track record in driving marketplace efficiency and margin expansion, viewing current levels as an opportunity for re rating if execution on cost discipline and take rate management improves.
On a medium term view, proponents emphasize that live event demand remains structurally healthy, and that even modest recapture of GOV growth could support attractive revenue and free cash flow compounding relative to the stock's compressed multiple.

What's in the News

Vivid Seats launched a strategic collaboration with United Airlines to let MileagePlus members earn miles on live event ticket purchases made through united.vividseats.com, with miles redeemable for flights, upgrades, bags, gift cards, and more (Key Developments).
Under the new program, United MileagePlus members earn two miles per dollar spent on Vivid Seats, while eligible United MileagePlus Chase cardholders earn enhanced rewards tiers ranging from three to five miles per dollar depending on card type (Key Developments).
Vivid Seats and United Airlines are partnering through United’s Kinective Media traveler media network, featuring Vivid Seats content across the traveler journey, including United’s 3D In Flight Map within inflight entertainment (Key Developments).
The Vivid Seats Board appointed former CFO Lawrence Fey as Chief Executive Officer, succeeding Stanley Chia following a mutually agreed leadership transition effective November 3, 2025 (Key Developments).
Ted Pickus, previously Chief Accounting Officer, was named Interim Chief Financial Officer as part of the same leadership transition, serving while Vivid Seats searches for a permanent CFO (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

The Fair Value Estimate has fallen significantly from approximately $39.19 to $18.00, implying a substantially lower assessed intrinsic value.
The Discount Rate has risen slightly from 12.32 percent to 12.50 percent, reflecting a modestly higher required return for equity holders.
The Revenue Growth Outlook has improved moderately, with the projected long term decline easing from about negative 2.96 percent to negative 1.91 percent.
The Net Profit Margin Forecast has increased from roughly 9.44 percent to 10.36 percent, indicating expectations for stronger profitability despite slower growth.
The Future P/E Multiple has compressed from about 8.3x to 5.3x, signaling a lower valuation being applied to anticipated earnings.

Accelerated international expansion and advanced technology investments position Vivid Seats for outsized revenue, margin, and market share gains as digital adoption grows.
Structural cost efficiencies and strong financial flexibility support aggressive share gains, opportunistic M&A, and potential EPS upside as end market demand strengthens.
Regulatory pressures, rising customer acquisition costs, shifting industry models, weak product differentiation, and unstable live event demand threaten Vivid Seats' long-term revenue stability and competitiveness.

Catalysts

About Vivid Seats

Operates an online ticket marketplace in the United States, Canada, and Japan.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Analysts broadly agree that international expansion will drive modest growth and incremental margin, but actual results in early European markets have already exceeded break-even, showing net contribution positive performance and proving that more rapid and profitable scaling across additional countries could substantially accelerate both revenue and margin growth in the medium term.
Analyst consensus calls for efficiency improvements from loyalty and cost controls, yet the cost reduction initiative-combined with the rapid rollout of AI-driven analytics and automation-could enable materially higher operating leverage, allowing Vivid Seats to win share aggressively while structurally compressing G&A and marketing spend as a percent of revenue, driving significant upward re-rating of EBITDA and net margin expectations.
Vivid Seats' investments in proprietary technology, including its highly adopted SkyBox ERP and next-phase seller tools, position the company to capture the large-scale shift to digital and mobile ticketing, boosting customer retention, growing average order sizes, and lifting conversion, which can directly expand both revenue and gross profit over time.
The continuing trend of younger generations demanding more frequent, unique live events-coupled with global urbanization and rising disposable incomes-means latent end-market growth remains underappreciated, especially for agile tech-centric platforms like Vivid Seats, unlocking upside in GOV, revenue, and order frequency as macro conditions normalize.
The company's strong balance sheet, growing cash flow, and demonstrated willingness to opportunistically repurchase shares at steep discounts to intrinsic value could turbocharge earnings per share and enable selective M&A, accelerating both top-line growth and margin expansion ahead of industry consolidation.

Vivid Seats Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on Vivid Seats compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts.
The bullish analysts are assuming Vivid Seats's revenue will decrease by 3.0% annually over the next 3 years.
Even the bullish analysts are not forecasting that Vivid Seats will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Vivid Seats's profit margin will increase from -20.3% to the average US Entertainment industry of 9.4% in 3 years.
If Vivid Seats's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $59.9 million (and earnings per share of $6.65) by about September 2028, up from $-141.2 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 8.3x on those 2028 earnings, up from -0.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Entertainment industry at 39.3x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.6% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 12.32%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Vivid Seats Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Regulatory actions such as the FTC's all-in pricing mandate and potential crackdowns on junk fees have already contributed to double-digit declines in industry volumes and are likely to compress Vivid Seats' take rate and profit margins as fee flexibility is reduced.
Aggressive marketing competition, particularly in performance marketing channels like paid search, is driving up customer acquisition costs, putting continued pressure on net margins and eroding overall profitability as competitors are willing to spend uneconomically to capture top-line growth.
Secular industry shifts towards direct-to-consumer ticketing, exclusive partnerships between event organizers and primary platforms, and growing adoption of blockchain or alternate ticketing methods threaten to reduce the relevance and transaction volume of secondary exchanges like Vivid Seats, resulting in persistent revenue headwinds.
Diminished differentiation in product or technology, as well as shuttering of side ventures like Vivid Picks due to poor engagement and regulatory complexity, highlight ongoing risks to user retention and challenge Vivid Seats' ability to achieve long-term revenue growth and a sustainable competitive moat.
The volatility and softness in live event demand-exacerbated by changing consumption patterns such as increasing preference for virtual or streaming events, as well as ongoing fluctuations from sports and concert calendar outcomes-increase the risk of unstable earnings and limit visibility into durable, long-term revenue growth.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The assumed bullish price target for Vivid Seats is $39.19, which represents two standard deviations above the consensus price target of $26.33. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Vivid Seats's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $40.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $18.0.
In order for you to agree with the bullish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $634.3 million, earnings will come to $59.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 8.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 12.3%.
Given the current share price of $15.77, the bullish analyst price target of $39.19 is 59.8% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystHighTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystHighTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystHighTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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