SEAT: Medium Term GOV Reset Will Support Bullish Repricing

Analysts have cut their price target on Vivid Seats roughly in half to $18, reflecting reduced fair value expectations amid intensified competitive pressures, lower projected gross order volume, and a reset growth outlook.

Analyst Commentary

Despite the sharp reset in official price targets, bullish analysts highlight that the revised ranges continue to imply upside from current trading levels. They argue that the market is already discounting a more challenging competitive environment and slower near term growth.

They also note that management has provided clearer visibility into medium term expectations. This allows investors to recalibrate models around a more conservative but potentially more achievable growth and profitability path.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts argue that the latest price target cuts largely reflect known headwinds, suggesting limited incremental downside risk to valuation if Vivid Seats can stabilize gross order volume and demonstrate share retention.
• They see the updated 2026 GOV framework as a realistic base that could be exceeded if competitive intensity moderates or if product and marketing initiatives restore ticketing volumes faster than anticipated.
• Several bulls point to management's track record in driving marketplace efficiency and margin expansion, viewing current levels as an opportunity for re rating if execution on cost discipline and take rate management improves.
• On a medium term view, proponents emphasize that live event demand remains structurally healthy, and that even modest recapture of GOV growth could support attractive revenue and free cash flow compounding relative to the stock's compressed multiple.

What's in the News

• Vivid Seats launched a strategic collaboration with United Airlines to let MileagePlus members earn miles on live event ticket purchases made through united.vividseats.com, with miles redeemable for flights, upgrades, bags, gift cards, and more (Key Developments).
• Under the new program, United MileagePlus members earn two miles per dollar spent on Vivid Seats, while eligible United MileagePlus Chase cardholders earn enhanced rewards tiers ranging from three to five miles per dollar depending on card type (Key Developments).
• Vivid Seats and United Airlines are partnering through United’s Kinective Media traveler media network, featuring Vivid Seats content across the traveler journey, including United’s 3D In Flight Map within inflight entertainment (Key Developments).
• The Vivid Seats Board appointed former CFO Lawrence Fey as Chief Executive Officer, succeeding Stanley Chia following a mutually agreed leadership transition effective November 3, 2025 (Key Developments).
• Ted Pickus, previously Chief Accounting Officer, was named Interim Chief Financial Officer as part of the same leadership transition, serving while Vivid Seats searches for a permanent CFO (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has fallen significantly from approximately $39.19 to $18.00, implying a substantially lower assessed intrinsic value.
• The Discount Rate has risen slightly from 12.32 percent to 12.50 percent, reflecting a modestly higher required return for equity holders.
• The Revenue Growth Outlook has improved moderately, with the projected long term decline easing from about negative 2.96 percent to negative 1.91 percent.
• The Net Profit Margin Forecast has increased from roughly 9.44 percent to 10.36 percent, indicating expectations for stronger profitability despite slower growth.
• The Future P/E Multiple has compressed from about 8.3x to 5.3x, signaling a lower valuation being applied to anticipated earnings.