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Catalysts
- Are there any products or services that could move sales or earnings meaningfully? Google Cloud and Waymo.
- Are there any industry tailwinds this stock is benefitting or hindered from? Cloud computing, autonomous EV, AI/machine learning.
Valuation
- Where do you think the business will be in 5 years time? Advertising will remain its main revenue. Cloud business will grow above 20% annually. Youtube has also potential to grow faster. Introduction of AI Google searches makes information more easily available. It may potential lose some market share to, e.g., ChatGPT if it laggs behind with AI. Waymo (robotaxi) is in the market. Other bets may surprise positively.
- What do you think revenue and profit margins will be? I assume 10-15% annual earnings growth within the analysts range (11.8%)
- What do you think the valuation multiple will be in the future? PE= 20-25
- Based on my growth expectations, is the stock currently overvalued or undervalued? UNDERVALUED
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Disclaimer
The user Unike holds no position in NasdaqGS:GOOGL. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
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A Fracturing Search Market and Lack of Monetization Will Slow Revenue Growth
Key Takeaways Alphabet has challenges in its search business unaccounted for by investors Alphabet’s best bet is to focus on the Cloud, but it’s an uphill battle AI will contribute to revenue growth, but profitability may come later Cloud and AI industries to grow, but analysts may have extrapolated too much Catalysts Company Catalysts AI Moat Lies In Proprietary Data Not Models A leaked Google internal memo outlines some controversial thinking inside the company. The anonymous employee argues that smaller peers are rapidly producing Large Language Models (LLM) models that can yield comparable results to Bard and GPT-4, with the added benefit of being cheaper to produce.
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FV
9.8% undervalued intrinsic discount10.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
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The Real Power Behind Alphabet’s Growth
Alphabet’s Q3 2024 results reveal an impressive 15% revenue growth to $88.3 billion, driven by robust ad revenue and a 35% surge in Google Cloud. With strong gains across Search, YouTube, and AI-powered enterprise solutions, Alphabet remains a leader in digital advertising and next-gen tech, pushing margins higher amidst fierce competition.
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1.5% overvalued intrinsic discount7.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
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Alphabet
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Google Search Continues to Dominate + Google Cloud Grows
Meaning During the tech bubble of the late 90’s, Larry Page and Sergey Brin founded Google which later went public in 2004. Larry and Sergey’s founding motto, “Google is not a conventional company.
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6.2% overvalued intrinsic discount10.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
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Content Lead
Trends in Cloud and Advertising Will Deliver Steady Revenue Growth
Key Takeaways Google’s dominance in search, and digital advertising industry growth will remain in tact. Cloud computing trends will support Google Cloud revenue growth Alphabet may implement AI slightly slower, but won’t fall behind Current estimates on costs per generative AI query are prohibitive to profitability Until processing power improves and makes generative AI cheaper, Google is unlikely to lose much market share.
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