CF Industries Holdings

Global Nitrogen Markets Will Suffer Amid Overvaluation Concerns

AN

AnalystConsensusTarget

AnalystConsensusTarget

Not Invested

Based on Analyst Price Targets

Published

21 Aug 24

Updated

27 Nov 25

n/a

n/a

AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value

n/a

1Y

-13.5%

7D

1.3%

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1Y

-13.5%

7D

1.3%

You can edit this narrative until Nov 28 5:10 AM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

US$92.7615.2% undervalued

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 27 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 0.19%

CF: Tight Nitrogen Markets And Clean Energy Advances Will Drive Long-Term Upside

The analyst price target for CF Industries Holdings has been adjusted slightly lower. This change reflects a modest decrease as analysts acknowledge both headwinds in profit margin expectations and ongoing support from industry fundamentals such as free cash flow generation and operational progress.

Shared on 07 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 0.66%

CF: Continued Share Repurchases And Low-Carbon Progress Will Support Future Gains

The consensus analyst price target for CF Industries Holdings has shifted modestly lower, dropping from approximately $93.56 to $92.94. Analysts cite a more cautious outlook on revenue growth and industry fundamentals, despite recent adjustments in sector forecasts.

Shared on 23 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 0.92%

Shared on 16 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 4.42%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 1.2% to 1.1%.

Shared on 09 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 7.38%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 1.6% to 1.2%.

Shared on 02 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 0.82%

Shared on 26 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 0.20%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 19 Mar 25

Fair value Decreased 0.15%

AnalystConsensusTarget has increased revenue growth from 0.9% to 1.3%.

Shared on 10 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 2.85%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 1.4% to 0.9% and decreased future PE multiple from 19.9x to 17.1x.

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

US$92.76

15.2% undervalued

Future estimation in

% p.a.

0

Decrease

Increase

Current revenue growth rate

-2.44%

Chemicals revenue growth rate

0.62%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

%

0

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

7.87%

Calculation

US$888.05m

Earnings '28

x

16.39x

PE Ratio '28

=

US$14.56b

Market Cap '28

US$14.56b

Market Cap '28

/

125.46m

No. shares '28

=

US$116.03

Share Price '28

US$116.03 Share Price '28

Discounted to 2025 @ 7.88% p.a.

=

US$92.43

Fair Value '25