U.S. Investing Ideas

US$419.91
7.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
10.21% p.a.
Profit Margin
39.34%
Future PE
23.17x
Price in 2031
US$636.94
US$50
224.0% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
10.55%
Future PE
16.5x
Price in 2031
US$160.15
US$65
30.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
US$730.02
20.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
15.76% p.a.
Profit Margin
32.84%
Future PE
20.26x
Price in 2031
US$1.11k
US$14.39
30.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
11% p.a.
Profit Margin
9%
Future PE
42x
Price in 2036
US$34.05
US$36.83
19.7% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
5.04% p.a.
Profit Margin
8%
Future PE
24x
Price in 2036
US$96.01