U.S. Investing Ideas

CRMD logo
CorMedix

CRMD is trading at 5.9x trough-year EBITDA with the market ascribing near-zero value to two near-term pipeline events

Investment Thesis DefenCath's regulatory moat (only FDA-approved antimicrobial CLS in the U.S., NCE+GAIN exclusivity through 2033, composition patent to 2042) is intact and the 72% real-world CRBSI reduction is standard-of-care quality data; the TDAPA pricing step-down is a commercial mechanics event, not a competitive displacement event The stock at $7.02 prices in approximately the bear case ($6.54), meaning investors are effectively receiving the REZZAYO prophylaxis Phase III binary and the DefenCath TPN pipeline for free — an unusual asymmetry for a cash-flow-positive commercial pharma company Operating cash flow of $175M in FY2025 and $148.5M in cash provides full self-funding of pipeline without dilution risk, and the $75M buyback at current prices represents management's explicit capital allocation conviction about intrinsic value The Melinta acquisition was well-priced ($30M goodwill on $391M identified intangibles) and adds an annualizing $130M+ revenue stream with shared call points that provide SG&A leverage as the combined platform scales Post-TDAPA recovery in 2027 (3x–5x higher add-on payment vs. H2 2026 per management, plus Medicare Advantage contracting upside not in guidance) provides a clearly identified catalyst path back to re-rating independent of pipeline success Risk Considerations ReSPECT Phase III failure (data Q2 2026) would eliminate ~$221M of base case rNPV, trigger impairment of the $143M IPR&D intangible, and likely reset the stock to the $5.60 52-week low or below — this is the primary binary risk and is near-term Customer concentration at 79% revenue from three accounts is structurally dangerous; any publicly announced reduction in DefenCath orders from a major dialysis organization would be a material negative event with little warning The Q4 GAAP EPS miss ($0.16 vs.Read more

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US$11
35.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
36.4% p.a.
Profit Margin
51.99%
Future PE
3.42x
Price in 2031
US$15.41
LUCD logo
Lucid Diagnostics

Poised for success

Lucid Diagnostics' EsoGuard is a novel screening tool for esophageal cancer. It is relatively non-invasive and may become widely accepted soon.Read more

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US$5
77.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
13.44%
Future PE
24.75x
Price in 2031
US$7.33
US$300
20.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
13.98% p.a.
Profit Margin
4%
Future PE
351.39x
Price in 2031
US$487.3
US$11.98
15.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
5% p.a.
Profit Margin
10%
Future PE
21x
Price in 2031
US$19.29
US$134.63
28.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
6.5% p.a.
Profit Margin
13%
Future PE
20x
Price in 2031
US$207.14
US$40.91
54.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
3.23% p.a.
Profit Margin
13%
Future PE
9x
Price in 2036
US$96.85