Cost Management And Insurance Expansion Will Strengthen Financial Stability

Key Takeaways

• Reduction in credit losses and effective cost management strategies are improving net margins and supporting earnings growth.
  
• Expansion in insurance and a stable deposit base contribute to diversified revenue streams and enhanced profitability.
  
• The company faces earnings challenges due to volatility, elevated charge-offs, and potential impacts from interest rate fluctuations on revenue and capital management.

Catalysts

A digital financial-services company, provides various digital financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and Bermuda.

• Ally Financial is proactively reducing the loss content of their originations, which they expect will lead to lower credit losses over time. This reduction in credit losses should improve net margins and earnings as the quality of their loan portfolio improves.
  
• The company operates with a liability-sensitive balance sheet, which positions them to benefit from margin expansion as interest rates decline. This is expected to enhance net interest margins (NIM) and positively impact earnings in a falling rate environment.
  
• Ally’s focus on expanding their insurance business and the momentum in insurance premiums is expected to drive fee revenue growth. This will contribute to higher revenue and potentially enhance overall profitability by diversifying income streams.
  
• The strengthening of Ally Bank's deposit base, with a high percentage of FDIC insured deposits, provides a stable funding source that supports NIM expansion. The bank’s ability to attract and retain deposit customers could lead to improved revenue and margin growth over time.
  
• Ally is engaging in capital and expense discipline, focusing on managing costs and building capital buffers. These efforts are expected to improve net margins and support earnings growth by ensuring efficient resource allocation and maintaining financial stability.

Ally Financial Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Ally Financial's revenue will grow by 12.1% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 11.5% today to 19.3% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.8 billion (and earnings per share of $5.68) by about December 2027, up from $775.0 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $2.4 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $1.4 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 9.9x on those 2027 earnings, down from 14.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Consumer Finance industry at 11.5x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.98% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 10.54%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Ally Financial Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The company is facing earnings challenges for the next few quarters due to a volatile operating environment with interest rate fluctuations and consumer inflation pressures, potentially impacting net margins and earnings.
  
• Increased volatility in near-term financial projections, particularly in credit cost and margin expectations, raises concerns about achieving stable revenue and net interest margins in the short term.
  
• Elevated net charge-offs and delinquencies in retail auto loans suggest continued pressure on loan loss provisioning and could negatively impact net income.
  
• The potential shift in accounting treatment for EV lease tax credits, while aligning future revenue with economic benefits, indicates a temporary reduction in CET1, which could affect capital management strategies.
  
• Uncertainty around the pace and impact of Federal Reserve rate cuts adds complexity to interest margin management, potentially affecting revenue growth and profitability in the near term.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $41.63 for Ally Financial based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $56.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $32.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $9.5 billion, earnings will come to $1.8 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 9.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 10.5%.
• Given the current share price of $35.75, the analyst's price target of $41.63 is 14.1% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.