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SoFi’s Growth Engine Powers Ahead

YI
yianniszInvested
Community Contributor

Published

November 16 2024

Updated

November 18 2024

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SoFi Technologies (SOFI) continues to ride the waves in the financial world, propelled by robust membership growth, product adoption, and diversification across its ecosystem.

In Q3 2024, the company declared a massive stock price increase over the past month, propelled by investors’ strong confidence in the company’s performance and general potential for further growth.

SoFi’s Membership Surge and Diversified Growth Fuel Upgraded Outlook

Membership growth remains a cornerstone of SoFi’s success. From Q1 2021 to Q3 2024, membership grew 75.81%, further supported by strong marketing and an ever-expanding suite of financial services. In Q3 2024 alone, SoFi added 756,000 new members, continuing its substantial quarterly gains. In concert with this, product adoption outpaces membership growth, a sign of increased engagement inside its FSPL or Financial Services Productivity Loop.

This has been supplemented by cross-selling services, including SoFi Money, SoFi Invest, and SoFi Relay, which has grown revenue per member while further diversifying the revenue base.

Net interest margin (NIM) has been one of the leading factors for SoFi’s profitability. Although NIM increased to 5.57% in Q3 2024 from 4.38% in Q1 2022, it has faced some headwinds lately, falling from its peak of 6.02% in Q4 2023. Such a trend would indicate pressure on interest income if interest rates continue lowering further. Despite this, SoFi has used its ecosystem pretty well to drive non-interest income and eliminate part of the risks of volatile margins.

SoFi’s expansion into non-lending products has indeed paid dividends. They saw considerable increases in product numbers for Money and Invest, where the number of users for SoFi Money surged by 54.05% YoY, and Relay users grew by 41.99% YoY at the end of Q3 2024. This diversification has made it less dependent on lending revenues, positioning the company as resilient when economic conditions change.

Sofi upped its annual revenue growth guidance 2024 to 22%-23% YoY from an initial projection of 14%-16%. This upward revision reflects confidence in maintaining growth in lending and non-lending segments. Financial services products to the number of lending products went up two-fold from 3.1x in 2021 to 6.2x in 2024, demonstrating the efforts toward a more balanced and diversified revenue model.

SoFi’s Growth Faces Margin and Market Challenges Ahead

SoFi’s impressive growth trajectory faces several potential risks that could impact its long-term outlook. Interest Margin Pressure One of the most important risks is that SoFi attains most of its profitability from NIM. If the Federal Reserve loosens further, it may see off significantly from SoFi’s net interest income. In Q3 2024, NIM compressed further to 5.57% from the Q4 peak of 6.02%. If the margin pressures persist, it could erode profitability, especially within the highly competitive fintech landscape.

The fintech space is highly competitive, where conservative financial institutions and lean startups fight for market share. SoFi’s ability to gain and retain customers while remaining competitive will be of the essence. Moreover, regulatory risks are high. Regulation changes concerning lending or consumer protection laws might raise compliance costs or dampen revenue opportunities.

According to digital finance expert Jason Wise, SoFi’s growth heavily relies on cross-selling its ecosystem of products. This strategy has been fruitful so far but could be subject to decreasing returns as the customer base expands. When the market is saturated or the effectiveness of cross-selling diminishes, it will eventually impact customer lifetime value and overall growth rates. Of course, broader economic challenges pose risks: A potential economic downturn could lead to reduced consumer spending, higher loan defaults, and lower demand for investment products.

Lastly, SoFi derives revenues from various sources, including newer non-lending products such as SoFi Money and SoFi Invest. This further complicates matters as these nascent offerings face intense competition with any associated margin pressures. In sum, while SoFi’s long-term potential remains sound, it must work through these risks to continue on this growth trajectory and create value for shareholders.

Takeaway

The bottom line is that SoFi’s recent performance underlines its continuing ability to produce sustained growth via innovation, diversification, and ecosystem expansion. At the same time, however, investors should look for possible short-term pullbacks with the stock now in overbought territory, compliments of recent strong performance and technical caution indications.

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Disclaimer

The user yiannisz has a position in NasdaqGS:SOFI. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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Fair Value
US$14.0
1.1% overvalued intrinsic discount
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Future estimation in
PastFuture02b4b6b20172019202120232024202520272029Revenue US$6.8bEarnings US$496.9m
% p.a.
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Current revenue growth rate
13.12%
Consumer Finance revenue growth rate
0.54%