Mister Car Wash

MCW: Future Membership Stabilization Will Drive Recovery Amid Recent Weakness

AN

AnalystConsensusTarget

AnalystConsensusTarget

Not Invested

Based on Analyst Price Targets

Published

09 Feb 25

Updated

28 Nov 25

Views

56

n/a

n/a

AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value

n/a

1Y

-18.8%

7D

2.1%

Loading

1Y

-18.8%

7D

2.1%

You can edit this narrative until Nov 29 5:10 AM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

US$7.4823.3% undervalued

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 28 Nov 25

MCW: Future Gains Will Depend On Stabilizing Membership Trends Into 2025

The analyst price target for Mister Car Wash was reduced from $8 to $6 per share, reflecting analysts’ concerns over sluggish comparable store trends and declining membership figures. Analyst Commentary Recent price target revisions reflect a shifting sentiment surrounding Mister Car Wash, prompted by uneven operational performance and challenging growth comparisons.

Shared on 13 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 0.42%

MCW: Recovery Potential Will Depend On Membership Trends Stabilizing In 2025

The analyst price target for Mister Car Wash has been lowered from $8 to $6, as analysts cite ongoing sluggish comparable trends and a sustained decline in membership per store. Analyst Commentary Analyst perspectives on Mister Car Wash have shifted as recent trends reflect both growth challenges and valuation reassessments.

Shared on 30 Oct 25

Fair value Decreased 8.03%

Analysts have lowered their price target for Mister Car Wash from $8.17 to $7.52. They cite ongoing sluggish comparable trends, persistent membership declines, and weaker non-member demand, all of which are impacting near-term growth expectations.

Shared on 04 Aug 25

Fair value Decreased 11%

The consensus price target for Mister Car Wash has been reduced to $8.39, primarily reflecting lower revenue growth forecasts and a slightly higher discount rate. What's in the News Mister Car Wash lowered its full-year revenue guidance, now expecting net revenue between $1,046 million and $1,054 million, down from prior guidance of up to $1,064 million.

Shared on 01 May 25

Fair value Decreased 5.16%

Shared on 23 Apr 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 17 Apr 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 09 Apr 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 02 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 1.99%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 26 Mar 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 19 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 0.32%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 12 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 1.33%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 9.0% to 8.1%.

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

US$7.48

23.3% undervalued

Future estimation in

Growth p.a.

Growth p.a.

%

Decrease

Increase

Current revenue growth rate

6.46%

Consumer Services revenue growth rate

0.34%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

%

0

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

8.85%

Calculation

US$162.89m

Earnings '28

x

20.06x

PE Ratio '28

=

US$3.27b

Market Cap '28

US$3.27b

Market Cap '28

/

338.34m

No. shares '28

=

US$9.66

Share Price '28

US$9.66 Share Price '28

Discounted to 2025 @ 8.91% p.a.

=

US$7.48

Fair Value '25