Update shared on 28 Nov 2025
The analyst price target for Mister Car Wash was reduced from $8 to $6 per share, reflecting analysts’ concerns over sluggish comparable store trends and declining membership figures.
Analyst Commentary
Recent price target revisions reflect a shifting sentiment surrounding Mister Car Wash, prompted by uneven operational performance and challenging growth comparisons. Analysts have highlighted several upside and downside factors to consider as the company navigates ongoing headwinds.
Bullish Takeaways
- The company maintains a broad store footprint. This could provide stability even during periods of underperformance at certain locations.
- Potential exists for improved performance in future quarters if current headwinds ease, including a rebound in comparable store sales trends.
- Efforts to address membership retention and store-level execution, if successful, may help restore growth momentum.
Bearish Takeaways
- Comparable store sales trends have become sluggish, increasing the risk of negative results over the next two quarters.
- Growth comparisons for Q4 and Q1 are expected to be particularly challenging, putting incremental pressure on expectations.
- Members per store have declined year-over-year for six consecutive quarters, with no clear sign of stabilization.
- Continued declines in customer membership may negatively impact recurring revenue and long-term valuation prospects.
What's in the News
- Mister Car Wash, Inc. reiterated earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, and expects net revenues between $1,046 million and $1,054 million (Company Guidance).
- The company projects comparable-store sales growth of 1.5% to 2.5% for the same period (Company Guidance).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate remained unchanged at $7.48 per share.
- Discount Rate decreased slightly from 8.99% to 8.91%.
- Revenue Growth Projection held steady at 7.35% year over year.
- Net Profit Margin Estimate was unchanged at 12.64%.
- Future Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio declined modestly from 20.46x to 20.06x.
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