Update shared on 13 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.42%The analyst price target for Mister Car Wash has been lowered from $8 to $6, as analysts cite ongoing sluggish comparable trends and a sustained decline in membership per store.
Analyst Commentary
Analyst perspectives on Mister Car Wash have shifted as recent trends reflect both growth challenges and valuation reassessments. The following summarizes key bullish and bearish takeaways from current analyst commentary.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts note Mister Car Wash remains a recognized brand with operational scale in the car wash industry. This may support long-term growth potential.
- The company's ability to navigate challenging market conditions could position it well for recovery once industry headwinds subside.
- Despite near-term pressures, Mister Car Wash's established customer base offers a foundation for future membership stabilization and potential reacceleration.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts highlight the ongoing decline in comparable store sales, raising concerns about the company's ability to drive consistent top-line growth.
- Membership per store has decreased year-over-year for six consecutive quarters. This suggests a structural challenge with customer retention and engagement.
- Analysts express caution regarding continued negative comparable trends in upcoming quarters. This could pressure valuation and investor sentiment further.
- The company's current performance against difficult year-over-year comparisons may prolong a recovery in key performance metrics.
What's in the News
- Mister Car Wash reiterated its earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. The company expects net revenues to be between $1,046 million and $1,054 million. (Key Developments)
- The company projects comparable-store sales growth in the range of 1.5% to 2.5% for 2025. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- The Fair Value Estimate has decreased slightly, moving from $7.52 to $7.48.
- The Discount Rate has risen modestly from 8.91% to 8.99%.
- The Revenue Growth forecast has increased from 6.41% to 7.35%.
- The Net Profit Margin projection has declined from 14.88% to 12.64%.
- The future P/E ratio estimate has increased from 17.8x to 20.5x.
Disclaimer
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