E-commerce And Urbanization Will Undermine Traditional Bulk Retailing

Key Takeaways

• Evolving consumer behavior and urban demographics threaten Costco's bulk-sales model, risking slower same-store growth and long-term margin pressure.
  
• Rising costs and global expansion challenges could compress margins, while membership growth stagnates in mature markets, limiting future earnings potential.
  
• Expanding global presence, strong membership growth, private label innovation, e-commerce investments, and operational efficiency initiatives are driving stable revenue streams and sustainable margin improvement.

Catalysts

Engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Iceland, New Zealand, and Sweden.

• Ongoing shifts toward e-commerce and alternative payment/loyalty platforms threaten Costco's traditional membership-based warehouse model, potentially capping future same-store sales growth and leading to lower renewal rates, which would directly impact both top-line revenue expansion and the stability of membership income.
  
• The increasing urbanization and reduction in average household size across developed markets is eroding demand for bulk purchasing, weakening one of Costco's core revenue drivers and making its value proposition less compelling to a growing portion of consumers, thereby risking slower comparable sales growth and pressure on long-term margins.
  
• Membership growth in mature markets is beginning to plateau, as acknowledged by the company's focus on strategic cannibalization and infill to relieve high-volume locations, indicating a saturation point that will constrain revenue expansion and could lead to lower overall earnings growth as opportunities for meaningful U.S. membership gains dwindle.
  
• Persistently rising labor costs, supply chain complexities, and heightened compliance costs-in an environment where price markups are already limited-will increasingly compress net margins, especially as global regulation and labor practices come under closer scrutiny, threatening Costco's historical margin stability.
  
• International expansion carries mounting risks, including cultural barriers, regulatory hurdles, and variable renewal rates in foreign markets that typically trail the U.S. These factors could dilute profitability, reduce returns on invested capital, and create volatility in future earnings growth, undermining the company's ability to sustain historic levels of financial performance.

Costco Wholesale Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• This narrative explores a more pessimistic perspective on Costco Wholesale compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bearish cohort of analysts.
• The bearish analysts are assuming Costco Wholesale's revenue will grow by 5.0% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bearish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 2.9% today to 3.1% in 3 years time.
• The bearish analysts expect earnings to reach $9.5 billion (and earnings per share of $21.56) by about August 2028, up from $7.8 billion today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bearish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 47.3x on those 2028 earnings, down from 55.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Consumer Retailing industry at 21.7x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.09% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Costco Wholesale Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Strong and consistent membership growth, with paid household members and executive memberships both rising at robust rates, points toward stable and expanding high-margin recurring revenue, positively impacting overall earnings and net margins.
  
• Continued international expansion, particularly with new warehouses in markets like Japan, Korea, Sweden, and Canada, is broadening Costco's global footprint and diversifying revenue streams, reducing reliance on the U.S. for revenue and supporting long-term top-line growth.
  
• Sustained strength and innovation within the Kirkland Signature private label, including margin improvements and successful local sourcing strategies, both lower costs and enhance differentiation, supporting gross margin expansion and strengthening pricing power over time.
  
• Accelerating digital and e-commerce capabilities-demonstrated by double-digit e-commerce growth, investment in Costco Logistics, new personalized digital features, and partnerships enabling Buy Now, Pay Later-are increasing member engagement and driving omnichannel sales, which can lead to higher revenue and customer retention.
  
• Ongoing investments in operational efficiency, technology improvements (such as digital checkout and inventory planning), and supply chain optimization are likely to mitigate cost pressures and support continuous improvement in net margins and operating income.

Valuation

• The assumed bearish price target for Costco Wholesale is $834.56, which represents two standard deviations below the consensus price target of $1072.67. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Costco Wholesale's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the more bearish end of the spectrum.
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $1225.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $620.0.
• In order for you to agree with the bearish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $310.9 billion, earnings will come to $9.5 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 47.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
• Given the current share price of $972.04, the bearish analyst price target of $834.56 is 16.5% lower. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to improve, they seem to believe the market's expectations are too high.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.