Lebanese Investing Ideas

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US$450
FV
35.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
35.41%
Revenue growth p.a.
282
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AU$2.45
FV
40.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
13.07%
Revenue growth p.a.
796
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Global Community

US$91.85
86.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
30% p.a.
Profit Margin
33%
Future PE
55x
Price in 2031
US$161.88
CA$0.85
43.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
For my valuation I am using free cash flow instead of EPS because PetroTal's main issue is whether it can fund its drilling program while still returning cash to shareholders. My base case assumes production recovers to around 20,000 barrels per day with Brent averaging around US$75. At that level I estimate PetroTal could generate around US$185 million of annual cash flow before capital spending. Assuming roughly US$100 million of annual capex would leave around US$85 million of free cash flow. With around 920 million shares outstanding that works out to about US$0.09 of free cash flow per share. Using a 7x multiple gives a value of around US$0.63 per share or roughly C$0.85 per share. Because of this I would put my fair value at around C$0.85 per share. This valuation mainly depends on PetroTal successfully recovering production towards 20,000 barrels per day. If production remains below that level then I would lower my valuation.
JP¥1.59k
32.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
3.21% p.a.
Profit Margin
3.9%
Future PE
10.15x
Price in 2031
JP¥2.14k
US$5.64
47.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
4.72%
Future PE
13.38x
Price in 2031
US$66.83
US$250
10.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
10.91% p.a.
Profit Margin
55.6%
Future PE
42.06x
Price in 2031
US$419.63
US$762.58
26.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
7.99% p.a.
Profit Margin
40.73%
Future PE
30.07x
Price in 2031
US$1.13k
JP¥2.17k
31.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
11.73% p.a.
Profit Margin
12.02%
Future PE
43.17x
Price in 2031
JP¥2.75k