Software Indian Community

KPIT Technologies is a rare specialist that builds the software inside modern cars, and the recent slump looks driven more by temporary setbacks than a broken business. The story hinges on whether new product-style offerings, wider use of AI, and expansion into newer markets can restart growth before weaker carmakers and a tough Europe drag results down again.Read more

Ceinsys Tech Ltd (CEINSYS) – DCF Valuation (as of 12 March 2026)Using the two-stage Discounted Cash Flow (FCFF) model, I have calculated the intrinsic fair value based on the latest consolidated financials from Screener.in, company earnings releases, and the Q3 FY26 earnings call transcript (order book ₹999 Cr as of Dec 2025, management hint of FY26 revenue ~₹700 Cr+).Key Inputs (Latest Available): TTM Revenue: ₹632 Cr | FY25: ₹418 Cr 9M FY26 Revenue: ₹490 Cr | PAT: ₹96 Cr Order book: ₹999 Cr (strong 1.5x+ TTM sales visibility) EBITDA margin (recent): 21–23.5% Net debt: ~₹30 Cr (conservative; borrowings ₹75 Cr minus estimated cash) Shares outstanding: 17.85 million (1.785 Cr shares from ₹18 Cr equity capital at ₹10 face value) Beta: ~0.57 (low volatility) My Base-Case Assumptions (Balanced & Realistic): FY26E Revenue: ₹680 Cr (9M run-rate + Q4 momentum) 5-year explicit growth (FY27–FY31): 35% → 30% → 25% → 20% → 15% (tapered; supported by order book, geospatial infra boom at 20%+ national CAGR, and execution track record) EBITDA margin: 22% (FY26–28) → 23–23.5% (improving scale & mix) Depreciation: 2% of revenue Capex: 3.5% of revenue (low; management confirmed no major tech capex planned beyond opex for AI/ML) Δ Working Capital: 12% of incremental revenue (conservative allowance for 221 debtor days; assumes gradual normalisation) Tax rate: 25% WACC: 10.8% (Rf 6.8% + beta 0.57 × 7% ERP; debt weight negligible) Terminal growth: 4% (long-term India GDP/infra sustainable rate) Explicit period: FY26–FY30; Terminal Value at end-FY30 using perpetuity formula on FY31 FCFF Projected Financials & FCFF (₹ Cr): Year Revenue EBITDA Margin FCFF (Free Cash Flow to Firm) FY26E 680 22.0% 88.2 FY27E 918 22.0% 95.4 FY28E 1,193 22.0% 128.1 FY29E 1,492 23.0% 176.8 FY30E 1,790 23.0% 219.3 FY31E 2,059 23.5% 268.9 (for TV calc) Terminal Value (end-FY30): ₹4,112 Cr Enterprise Value: ₹2,962 Cr Equity Value: ₹2,932 Cr (after net debt) Fair Value per Share: ₹1,643 Upside from Current Price (₹1,000–1,037 range): 58–64% (base case).Sensitivity Analysis (Fair Value per Share): Conservative (WACC 11.5%, growth -5% pts, ΔWC 15%, EBITDA 21%): ₹1,250–1,320 Base (as above): ₹1,643 Optimistic (WACC 10.0%, growth +5% pts, ΔWC 8%, EBITDA 24%): ₹1,950–2,100 Alternative (Exit multiple 22x FY30 EBITDA instead of perpetuity): ~₹1,780–1,850 (aligns with some analyst models) Comparison with Other Methods (for cross-check): Current TTM P/E: 15.4x → Forward FY27E P/E ~10–11x (very attractive vs. IT/geospatial peers 20–25x) Historical median intrinsic models: ~₹1,246 Overall DCF range: ₹1,300–1,850 (central tendency ~₹1,550–1,650) Why the Model is Robust: Order book provides high visibility for first 2–3 years.Read more

Veefin is trying to turn a niche finance tool into a wider platform by adding new AI capabilities through its first overseas deal. The big question is whether this move helps it win more bank customers and expand abroad faster, or adds complexity and execution risk.Read more

A small software maker says it expects to land several large, repeat contracts for a newly built product, and the business argues that much of that revenue could fall straight to profit because the software is already made. The big question is whether those deals show up in upcoming reports—and if they do, the company could look very different from what the market assumes today.Read more

A big push by the UK government and the NHS to modernize their tech could mean years of steady work for Mastek, helping it sell more advanced data and automation services over time. But the story has a catch: the company leans heavily on a few major public clients, and rising staff costs plus a shaky US business could quickly squeeze progress.Read more

Key Takeaways Strategic focus on AI-driven digital solutions, recurring managed services, and geographic expansion improves revenue predictability, margin profile, and reduces client concentration risk. Strong cash generation and prudent capital allocation provide flexibility for investment in growth opportunities and support sustainable long-term earnings.Read more

Black Box is leaning into bigger, bundled tech deals for data centers, cloud-heavy customers, and the public sector, aiming for steadier work and stronger profits over time. The catch is that tougher competition and a heavier dependence on a few large contracts could make results swing around if projects get delayed or lost.Read more

Coforge is leaning hard into AI tools, cloud projects, and industry-focused expertise to win bigger, longer-term contracts and become a stickier partner for large companies. But the story depends on keeping a handful of major clients happy while spending more to stay ahead of fast-moving automation that could squeeze pricing.Read more

Cyient is leaning hard into AI-powered engineering and digital work, and recent wins in areas like chips, aerospace, and telecom hint it could grow faster than many expect. But the same automation trend and reliance on a few big industries could also squeeze its pricing and make results more volatile.Read more