Software Indian Community

Veefin pushes beyond its core finance software by buying into a Singapore-based AI startup, aiming to help banks make faster, more confident lending decisions from messy real-world data. The bigger story is whether this AI add-on can unlock new features to sell to existing customers while helping the company break into more international markets.Read more

KPIT Technologies is a rare specialist that builds the software inside modern cars, and the recent slump looks driven more by temporary setbacks than a broken business. The story hinges on whether new product-style offerings, wider use of AI, and expansion into newer markets can restart growth before weaker carmakers and a tough Europe drag results down again.Read more

Ceinsys Tech Ltd (CEINSYS) – DCF Valuation (as of 12 March 2026)Using the two-stage Discounted Cash Flow (FCFF) model, I have calculated the intrinsic fair value based on the latest consolidated financials from Screener.in, company earnings releases, and the Q3 FY26 earnings call transcript (order book ₹999 Cr as of Dec 2025, management hint of FY26 revenue ~₹700 Cr+).Key Inputs (Latest Available): TTM Revenue: ₹632 Cr | FY25: ₹418 Cr 9M FY26 Revenue: ₹490 Cr | PAT: ₹96 Cr Order book: ₹999 Cr (strong 1.5x+ TTM sales visibility) EBITDA margin (recent): 21–23.5% Net debt: ~₹30 Cr (conservative; borrowings ₹75 Cr minus estimated cash) Shares outstanding: 17.85 million (1.785 Cr shares from ₹18 Cr equity capital at ₹10 face value) Beta: ~0.57 (low volatility) My Base-Case Assumptions (Balanced & Realistic): FY26E Revenue: ₹680 Cr (9M run-rate + Q4 momentum) 5-year explicit growth (FY27–FY31): 35% → 30% → 25% → 20% → 15% (tapered; supported by order book, geospatial infra boom at 20%+ national CAGR, and execution track record) EBITDA margin: 22% (FY26–28) → 23–23.5% (improving scale & mix) Depreciation: 2% of revenue Capex: 3.5% of revenue (low; management confirmed no major tech capex planned beyond opex for AI/ML) Δ Working Capital: 12% of incremental revenue (conservative allowance for 221 debtor days; assumes gradual normalisation) Tax rate: 25% WACC: 10.8% (Rf 6.8% + beta 0.57 × 7% ERP; debt weight negligible) Terminal growth: 4% (long-term India GDP/infra sustainable rate) Explicit period: FY26–FY30; Terminal Value at end-FY30 using perpetuity formula on FY31 FCFF Projected Financials & FCFF (₹ Cr): Year Revenue EBITDA Margin FCFF (Free Cash Flow to Firm) FY26E 680 22.0% 88.2 FY27E 918 22.0% 95.4 FY28E 1,193 22.0% 128.1 FY29E 1,492 23.0% 176.8 FY30E 1,790 23.0% 219.3 FY31E 2,059 23.5% 268.9 (for TV calc) Terminal Value (end-FY30): ₹4,112 Cr Enterprise Value: ₹2,962 Cr Equity Value: ₹2,932 Cr (after net debt) Fair Value per Share: ₹1,643 Upside from Current Price (₹1,000–1,037 range): 58–64% (base case).Sensitivity Analysis (Fair Value per Share): Conservative (WACC 11.5%, growth -5% pts, ΔWC 15%, EBITDA 21%): ₹1,250–1,320 Base (as above): ₹1,643 Optimistic (WACC 10.0%, growth +5% pts, ΔWC 8%, EBITDA 24%): ₹1,950–2,100 Alternative (Exit multiple 22x FY30 EBITDA instead of perpetuity): ~₹1,780–1,850 (aligns with some analyst models) Comparison with Other Methods (for cross-check): Current TTM P/E: 15.4x → Forward FY27E P/E ~10–11x (very attractive vs. IT/geospatial peers 20–25x) Historical median intrinsic models: ~₹1,246 Overall DCF range: ₹1,300–1,850 (central tendency ~₹1,550–1,650) Why the Model is Robust: Order book provides high visibility for first 2–3 years.Read more

A small software maker says it expects to land several large, repeat contracts for a newly built product, and the business argues that much of that revenue could fall straight to profit because the software is already made. The big question is whether those deals show up in upcoming reports—and if they do, the company could look very different from what the market assumes today.Read more

Tech Mahindra could face a slow squeeze as customers automate more work, bring projects in-house, and push down what they’re willing to pay for outside IT help. At the same time, tighter cross-border rules, higher compliance needs, and a tougher hiring market may raise costs—unless its recent push into newer services and new client wins proves stronger than expected.Read more

LTIMindtree is betting on businesses rushing to upgrade their systems with AI, automation, and cloud services—and it’s landing bigger, longer client deals as a result. The big question is whether it can turn its merger plans and growing global footprint into steadier profits before cautious customer budgets, pricing pressure, and fast-changing tech start to bite.Read more

Infosys keeps winning bigger projects as companies rush to modernize their technology with cloud and AI, which could support steadier profits even as costs shift. But the same automation boom and tougher regulations could also squeeze pricing and make growth less predictable.Read more

HCL Technologies is leaning into AI partnerships and a bigger push into U.S. public sector work to keep its services business growing even in a choppy economy. The upside comes from stronger demand for automation and a streamlined software unit, but that plan could stumble if clients pull back on spending or AI projects don’t roll out smoothly.Read more

Black Box is lining up more work from big data center and AI build-outs, and it’s also pushing into Brazil through a new acquisition that could widen its customer base. The key question is whether supply delays and the lumpy nature of mega-projects slow deliveries enough to derail the growth story.Read more