Last Update 23 Sep 25
Fair value Increased 25%🪙 Andean Silver – Updated Snapshot (Sept 2025)
Latest official info
- Shares Outstanding (basic): ~188.2M (ASX data, Sept 2025).
- Fully Permitted Infrastructure: 1,650 tpd mill at Cerro Bayo in Chile, with power, water, and town support.
- Resource: 9.8 Mt @ 353 g/t AgEq (~111M oz AgEq, Indicated + Inferred, April 2025 update).
- Financing: A$30M placement in mid-2025 at A$1.20/sh → pro forma cash ~A$42M to fund drilling, studies, restart planning.
- Insider ownership: ~16% direct, with board & management closer to 30% including aligned holders.
⚠️ Risks
- Timeline delays: Restart hinges on studies in 2025, permitting, and refurbishment → earliest production 2026–2027.
- Costs: No public AISC yet; real costs could end up higher than assumed US$20/oz.
- Dilution: Despite A$30M raised, further equity may be needed; could increase share count.
- Operational: Underground restart can face surprises — ground, recoveries, or lower-than-expected grades.
- Commodity: The upside case depends on silver staying above US$50–100.
- Jurisdiction: Chile has added mining uncertainty in recent years; Cerro Bayo’s permitted status reduces but doesn’t remove this risk.
⚡ Catalysts
- 2025 scoping study: Key to lay out restart economics and costs.
- Drilling results: Resource expansion beyond 111M oz, upgrades from Inferred to Indicated.
- Restart decision: Possible by 2026–2027 with feasibility/financing.
- Ramp-up: Moving from 3M oz to 5M oz production per year.
- Silver price: Rising silver gives huge leverage to FCF.
- M&A: Cerro Bayo’s grade and infrastructure could attract mid-tier or majors.
- Insider alignment: 30%+ aligned owners want long-term success.
🗺️ Risks & Catalysts Mapped to Timeline
2025 🚧 Risks: Study surprises, higher costs than expected, limited drilling success. ⚡ Catalysts: Scoping study release, A$30M fully deployed, drilling updates, resource growth.
2026–2027 🚧 Risks: Delays refurbishing mill, permitting slippage, inflation of restart costs. ⚡ Catalysts: Feasibility completion, restart decision, first production possible, strong exploration pipeline.
2028+ 🚧 Risks: Struggles scaling from 3M oz to 5M oz, commodity prices weaken. ⚡ Catalysts: Full production ramp-up, cash flow strength, resource expansion beyond 125M oz AgEq.
📊 Valuation Scenarios (AISC = $30/oz, 188.2M shares)
At US$100 Silver
- FCF/oz = $70
- 3M oz/yr → $210M FCF • 10× = $2.10B → ~$11.2/sh • 15× = $3.15B → ~$16.7/sh • 20× = $4.20B → ~$22.3/sh
- 5M oz/yr → $350M FCF • 10× = $3.50B → ~$18.6/sh • 15× = $5.25B → ~$27.9/sh • 20× = $7.00B → ~$37.2/sh
At US$150 Silver
- FCF/oz = $120
- 3M oz/yr → $360M FCF • 10× = $3.60B → ~$19.1/sh • 15× = $5.40B → ~$28.7/sh • 20× = $7.20B → ~$38.3/sh
- 5M oz/yr → $600M FCF • 10× = $6.00B → ~$31.9/sh • 15× = $9.00B → ~$47.9/sh • 20× = $12.00B → ~$63.8/sh
🎯 Conclusion
✅ Cerro Bayo restart remains one of the cleanest in silver: mill, permits, high grade, exploration upside.
✅ With AISC at $30/oz, valuations still show $11–37/share at $100 silver and $19–64/share at $150 silver.
✅ Insiders hold ~30% and financing is underway, aligning interests.
⚠️ Execution and financing risks remain, but if silver enters a super-bull phase, Andean could deliver 10×+ upside. 🚀
🪙 Andean Silver – Valuation & Outlook
🔑 Key Project – Cerro Bayo (Chile)
- Resource: ~90M oz AgEq at ~300 gpt, mostly underground with a 16M oz open pit.
- History: Produced 45M oz silver and 650K oz gold before being put on care & maintenance in 2022.
- Infrastructure: Fully permitted 1,650 tpd mill in excellent condition, with water, power, and mining town nearby.
- Past production areas: LVMC complex (66M oz @ 330 gpt AgEq), Cerro Bayo complex (350M oz AgEq historically mined).
- Exploration potential: Underexplored; expectation of at least 125M oz AgEq long-term.
- Timeline: Drilling completed in 2024, scoping study planned 2025. Restart could be feasible 2026–2027.
- Production profile: Restart 3M oz AgEq/year with potential to grow toward 5M oz/year.
- Ownership: Management/board owns ~30%, strong insider alignment.
💰 Valuation Scenarios (AISC assumed $20/oz, industry average)
At $100 silver:
- Free cash flow per ounce = $80.
- Production base case = 3M oz × $80 = $240M annual FCF. • At 10× FCF = $2.40B. • At 15× FCF = $3.60B. • At 20× FCF = $4.80B.
- Production upside case = 5M oz × $80 = $400M annual FCF. • At 10× FCF = $4.00B. • At 15× FCF = $6.00B. • At 20× FCF = $8.00B.
At $150 silver:
- Free cash flow per ounce = $130.
- Production base case = 3M oz × $130 = $390M annual FCF. • At 10× FCF = $3.90B. • At 15× FCF = $5.85B. • At 20× FCF = $7.80B.
- Production upside case = 5M oz × $130 = $650M annual FCF. • At 10× FCF = $6.50B. • At 15× FCF = $9.75B. • At 20× FCF = $13.00B.
(Per-share values depend on final share count post-financing; current valuation is still very cheap relative to restart potential.)
⚠️ Risks
- Timeline risk: Restart requires a scoping study (2025), financing, and refurbishing → earliest production ~2026–2027.
- Jurisdiction: Chile has become less mining-friendly, though Cerro Bayo being permitted and recently in production reduces risk.
- Financing: Even with low restart capex, some equity/debt financing is likely; dilution possible.
- Operational ramp-up: Restarting underground mines can bring cost surprises or lower recoveries.
- Commodity risk: Valuation is highly leveraged to silver price staying above $50–100.
- Exploration dependence: Assumption of 125M+ oz requires continued drilling success.
⚡ Catalysts
- 2025 scoping study: Key milestone to outline restart economics.
- 2026–2027 restart decision: Moving from developer to producer.
- Exploration success: Expanding Cerro Bayo resource beyond 90M oz AgEq.
- Ramp-up to 5M oz/year production: Would double FCF potential.
- Rising silver prices: Each $10 increase adds significant cash flow.
- Strategic M&A potential: Cerro Bayo’s grade, scale, and existing mill make it highly attractive to mid-tier or major producers.
- Insider alignment: 30% insider ownership drives confidence in execution.
🎯 Conclusion
Andean Silver’s Cerro Bayo is one of the lowest-risk restart projects in the silver sector: fully permitted, high-grade, with existing infrastructure and a production history.
At $100 silver, valuations could range $2.4B–$8.0B depending on scale. At $150 silver, the range expands to $3.9B–$13.0B. With insiders holding 30% and Frank Giustra-style positioning, Andean Silver could deliver 10×–20× upside in a secular silver bull market.
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