RockeTeller updated the narrative for ASL

🪙 Andean Silver – Updated Snapshot (Sept 2025)

Latest official info

• Shares Outstanding (basic): ~188.2M (ASX data, Sept 2025).
• Fully Permitted Infrastructure: 1,650 tpd mill at Cerro Bayo in Chile, with power, water, and town support.
• Resource: 9.8 Mt @ 353 g/t AgEq (~111M oz AgEq, Indicated + Inferred, April 2025 update).
• Financing: A$30M placement in mid-2025 at A$1.20/sh → pro forma cash ~A$42M to fund drilling, studies, restart planning.
• Insider ownership: ~16% direct, with board & management closer to 30% including aligned holders.

⚠️ Risks

• Timeline delays: Restart hinges on studies in 2025, permitting, and refurbishment → earliest production 2026–2027.
• Costs: No public AISC yet; real costs could end up higher than assumed US$20/oz.
• Dilution: Despite A$30M raised, further equity may be needed; could increase share count.
• Operational: Underground restart can face surprises — ground, recoveries, or lower-than-expected grades.
• Commodity: The upside case depends on silver staying above US$50–100.
• Jurisdiction: Chile has added mining uncertainty in recent years; Cerro Bayo’s permitted status reduces but doesn’t remove this risk.

⚡ Catalysts

• 2025 scoping study: Key to lay out restart economics and costs.
• Drilling results: Resource expansion beyond 111M oz, upgrades from Inferred to Indicated.
• Restart decision: Possible by 2026–2027 with feasibility/financing.
• Ramp-up: Moving from 3M oz to 5M oz production per year.
• Silver price: Rising silver gives huge leverage to FCF.
• M&A: Cerro Bayo’s grade and infrastructure could attract mid-tier or majors.
• Insider alignment: 30%+ aligned owners want long-term success.

🗺️ Risks & Catalysts Mapped to Timeline

2025 🚧 Risks: Study surprises, higher costs than expected, limited drilling success. ⚡ Catalysts: Scoping study release, A$30M fully deployed, drilling updates, resource growth.

2026–2027 🚧 Risks: Delays refurbishing mill, permitting slippage, inflation of restart costs. ⚡ Catalysts: Feasibility completion, restart decision, first production possible, strong exploration pipeline.

2028+ 🚧 Risks: Struggles scaling from 3M oz to 5M oz, commodity prices weaken. ⚡ Catalysts: Full production ramp-up, cash flow strength, resource expansion beyond 125M oz AgEq.

📊 Valuation Scenarios (AISC = $30/oz, 188.2M shares)

At US$100 Silver

• FCF/oz = $70
• 3M oz/yr → $210M FCF • 10× = $2.10B → ~$11.2/sh • 15× = $3.15B → ~$16.7/sh • 20× = $4.20B → ~$22.3/sh
• 5M oz/yr → $350M FCF • 10× = $3.50B → ~$18.6/sh • 15× = $5.25B → ~$27.9/sh • 20× = $7.00B → ~$37.2/sh

At US$150 Silver

• FCF/oz = $120
• 3M oz/yr → $360M FCF • 10× = $3.60B → ~$19.1/sh • 15× = $5.40B → ~$28.7/sh • 20× = $7.20B → ~$38.3/sh
• 5M oz/yr → $600M FCF • 10× = $6.00B → ~$31.9/sh • 15× = $9.00B → ~$47.9/sh • 20× = $12.00B → ~$63.8/sh

🎯 Conclusion

✅ Cerro Bayo restart remains one of the cleanest in silver: mill, permits, high grade, exploration upside.

✅ With AISC at $30/oz, valuations still show $11–37/share at $100 silver and $19–64/share at $150 silver.

✅ Insiders hold ~30% and financing is underway, aligning interests.

⚠️ Execution and financing risks remain, but if silver enters a super-bull phase, Andean could deliver 10×+ upside. 🚀