Full Truck Alliance Gelecekteki Büyüme
Future kriter kontrolleri 1/6
Full Truck Alliance kazanç ve gelirin sırasıyla yıllık 16.1% ve 7.2% oranında artacağı tahmin edilmektedir. EPS'nin yıllık 18.2% oranında büyümesi beklenmektedir. Özkaynak kârlılığının 3 yıl içinde 13.3% olacağı tahmin edilmektedir.
Anahtar bilgiler
16.1%
Kazanç büyüme oranı
18.16%
EPS büyüme oranı
| Transportation kazanç büyümesi | 15.1% |
| Gelir büyüme oranı | 7.2% |
| Gelecekteki özkaynak getirisi | 13.32% |
| Analist kapsamı | Good |
| Son güncelleme | 11 Aug 2026 |
Gelecekteki son büyüme güncellemeleri
Recent updates
Anlatı Güncellemesi • Jul 14
YMM: Reset Expectations And 30-Day Catalyst Watch Will Drive Bullish Repricing
Full Truck Alliance's analyst price target has been revised to $16.17 from $16.77, as analysts attribute the change to a lower assumed future P/E multiple, along with slightly stronger modeled revenue growth and profit margins following recent upgrades and new coverage. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage on Full Truck Alliance shows a cluster of bullish opinions, with several banks raising ratings, setting new price targets, and highlighting potential upside after recent share price weakness and earnings forecast resets.Seeking Alpha • Jul 09
Full Truck Alliance: Upgrade To Buy As Valuation Narrative Reaches An Inflection Point
Summary Full Truck Alliance upgraded to BUY with an $11–$13/share target, implying 30–50% upside on 13x–15x forward P/E. YMM’s platform cleanup and governance reforms have improved business sustainability, with negative sentiment largely priced in after consensus revenue downgrades. Q1 saw accelerating fulfilled orders (+14.3% y/y), rising shipper MAUs (+12.7% y/y), and a healthier revenue mix favoring high-margin transaction services. Valuation is compelling at a 3-year low, supported by net cash (27% of market cap), a 4% dividend yield, and strong network effects. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Anlatı Güncellemesi • Jun 30
YMM: Future Returns Will Hinge On Execution Against A Reset Expectations Bar
Analysts have modestly lifted their fair value estimate for Full Truck Alliance. The higher price target is informed by slightly stronger implied revenue growth, a small uptick in projected profit margins, and a higher assumed future P/E multiple.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Jun 16
YMM: Future Returns Will Balance Buybacks Bullish Calls And Execution Risks
Analysts have reduced their average price target on Full Truck Alliance stock to about $8.24 per share from roughly $8.29. This revision reflects updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rates and future P/E multiples, following a series of recent bullish initiations and upgrades by major firms.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Jun 02
YMM: Dividend And 30-Day Catalyst Watch Will Support Bullish Repricing
Analysts have modestly lifted the price target on Full Truck Alliance to about $16.77 per share, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profitability, discount rate and future P/E. These changes align with a generally constructive tone in recent research, including new coverage, an upgrade and a short term catalyst watch, alongside one Hold downgrade.Anlatı Güncellemesi • May 06
YMM: Future Returns Will Hinge On Mixed Margin Outlook And Governance Versus Regulatory Risks
Analysts have reduced their price target for Full Truck Alliance from $9.55 to $8.29, citing more cautious assumptions on revenue growth and valuation multiples. This is partly offset by higher projected profit margins and input from recent mixed Street views, including a new bullish initiation, an upgrade, a short term upside watch and a downgrade.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Apr 22
YMM: Near Term Catalyst Watch And Dividend Initiation Will Support Rerating
Analysts have nudged their price target for Full Truck Alliance higher to $16.49 from $16.13, citing updated assumptions about revenue growth, a revised profit margin profile, and a higher future P/E multiple, despite a slight adjustment to the discount rate. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Full Truck Alliance has been mixed, but several bullish analysts are highlighting potential upside in the near term, especially around catalysts they see playing out over the next month.
Anlatı Güncellemesi • Apr 07
YMM: Governance And Dividend Progress Will Support Returns Through 2026
Analysts have trimmed their price targets for Full Truck Alliance to $8 to $9, reflecting updated assumptions around slightly higher discount rates, modestly adjusted growth and margin expectations, and recent research highlighting ongoing regulatory and macro headwinds, along with mixed views on the company’s new initiatives. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Full Truck Alliance reflects a split view, with some analysts focusing on potential long term benefits from new initiatives and others emphasizing execution risks and ongoing headwinds.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Mar 24
YMM: Governance And Dividend Initiatives Will Support Returns Into 2026
Narrative Update on Full Truck Alliance The updated analyst price target for Full Truck Alliance has been reduced from $14.52 to $12.40 as analysts factor in recent downgrades, softer revenue growth assumptions, and ongoing regulatory and macro headwinds that they believe limit near term catalysts. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has shifted more cautious on Full Truck Alliance, with multiple downgrades and trimmed price targets reflecting concerns about execution risk and limited visibility on new growth drivers.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Mar 09
YMM: Future Returns Will Depend On Governance Efforts Versus Regulatory Headwinds
Analysts have reduced their price targets on Full Truck Alliance, including a cut from $11 to $8, citing a weaker risk and reward trade off, limited near term catalysts, and ongoing regulatory and macro headwinds that are weighing on the company's core operations. Analyst Commentary JPMorgan cut its rating on Full Truck Alliance to Underweight from Neutral and reduced its price target to $8 from $11, reflecting a more cautious stance on the stock.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Feb 23
YMM: Governance And International Expansion Efforts Will Support Future Rerating
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Full Truck Alliance to $8 from $11, citing a weaker risk or reward profile as ongoing regulatory and macro pressures, softer margin assumptions, and limited visibility on new growth initiatives weigh on the outlook. Analyst Commentary JPMorgan's downgrade of Full Truck Alliance to Underweight with a US$8 price target, down from US$11, underlines how regulatory and macro pressures are weighing on sentiment.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Feb 09
YMM: Future Returns Will Hinge On Order Quality And Regulatory Headwinds
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Full Truck Alliance from about US$11.06 to roughly US$9.55 per share, reflecting lower expected profit margins and P/E, alongside ongoing concerns around regulation, macro headwinds and slower order growth, even as revenue growth assumptions are adjusted higher. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research highlights a more cautious tone on Full Truck Alliance, with several firms trimming price targets and reassessing the balance of risks around execution, growth and regulation.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Jan 25
YMM: Order Quality Cleanup And Governance Efforts Will Support Future Margin Expansion
Analysts have trimmed their blended price target for Full Truck Alliance to about US$17.91 from roughly US$18.23 as they factor in lower forecast revenue growth, a reduced assumed future P/E multiple, and mixed views on order momentum and regulatory headwinds, despite stronger modeled profit margins. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Full Truck Alliance presents a split picture, with JPMorgan turning more cautious while other firms still see room for execution on growth plans and margin potential.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Jan 11
YMM: Order Quality Improvements Will Drive Future Margin Expansion Potential
Analysts have inched their price targets on Full Truck Alliance lower, broadly trimming expectations to a US$12 to US$14 range as they weigh Q3 results that were roughly in line with forecasts against signs of slowing order growth and near term revenue deceleration. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a more cautious stance on near term growth, but many bullish analysts are still highlighting areas where they see execution holding up and the long term story intact.Analiz Makalesi • Jan 03
Full Truck Alliance (NYSE:YMM) Is Experiencing Growth In Returns On Capital
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...Anlatı Güncellemesi • Dec 26
YMM: Future Returns Will Depend On Order Quality And Earnings Durability
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Full Truck Alliance slightly, with the updated fair value estimate edging down to $11.06 from $11.08. This reflects expectations for slower near term revenue growth, partly offset by improving profit margins and a lower assumed future P/E multiple.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Dec 12
YMM: Long Term Margin Expansion Will Drive Earnings Power Ahead
The analyst price target for Full Truck Alliance has been trimmed modestly to approximately $18 from about $19.75 as analysts factor in decelerating near term revenue growth and higher discount rates, which are partly offset by improving long term profit margin expectations and a lower future earnings multiple. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts acknowledge a near term moderation in order growth but continue to highlight Full Truck Alliance's solid execution against expectations, particularly around revenue delivery and platform quality improvements.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Nov 28
YMM: Forward Revenue Guidance Will Support Robust Returns Into 2026
Full Truck Alliance's analyst price target has been revised downward, dropping from approximately $15.29 to $14.52 per share. Analysts cite recent quarterly results and cautious forward guidance for order volume and transaction revenue growth as reasons for this adjustment.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Nov 14
YMM: Future Net Profit Margins Will Sustain Strong Shareholder Returns
Analysts have slightly adjusted their price target for Full Truck Alliance, raising it marginally to $15.29 per share. They cited minor improvements in the company’s discount rate estimates as the reason for this adjustment.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Oct 31
YMM: Future AI Matching And Logistics Trends Will Drive Strong Upside
Analysts have maintained their fair value estimate for Full Truck Alliance at $15.29 per share, citing minimal changes in key assumptions that support their outlook. What's in the News Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.Anlatı Güncellemesi • Oct 16
China Online Logistics And AI Matching Will Unlock Future Value
Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for Full Truck Alliance from $15.52 to $15.29 per share. They cite tempered growth and margin expectations but maintain optimism due to recent undervaluation concerns and anticipation of strong quarterly results.Analiz Makalesi • Sep 18
Investors Appear Satisfied With Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.'s (NYSE:YMM) Prospects As Shares Rocket 26%
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. ( NYSE:YMM ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great...Anlatı Güncellemesi • Sep 11
China Online Logistics And AI Matching Will Unlock Future Value
The consensus analyst price target for Full Truck Alliance has been modestly raised to $15.52, reflecting improved sentiment driven by attractive valuation post-selloff, easing regulatory concerns, and expectations for strong Q2 results. Analyst Commentary Valuation has become more attractive after the recent selloff.Seeking Alpha • Mar 08
Full Truck Alliance: Maintain 'Buy' After Strong Q4 Results
Summary Full Truck Alliance's Q4 2024 results showed strong growth, with net revenues up 32% and non-GAAP net income up 43.5% year-over-year. The stock surged 13% post-earnings, validating my thesis of rapid growth driven by increasing order volume and monetization rate. Despite the rally, YMM remains undervalued; I maintain a "buy" rating with a target price of $17.5-18, implying a 32% upside. Key risks include potential reductions in VAT subsidies and scrutiny over high-interest rates in YMM's value-added services. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 22
Full Truck Alliance: Too Cheap For The Growth.
Summary Full Truck Alliance (YMM) is China's largest digital freight platform, offering freight matching and value-added services, with a dominant market share and significant growth potential. YMM's revenue and order volume are increasing, driven by rising online penetration rates and higher monetization rates, with a projected revenue growth of over 20% in 2025 and 2026. Despite regulatory and competitive risks, YMM's current valuation is low, trading at 16 times 2025 earnings, with a target price of $16.5-$17 per share. Initiating a "buy" rating for YMM due to its strong market position, growth drivers, and potential for a 50% upside from the current stock price. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Yeni Anlatı • Nov 20
Transformative Digital Revolution Elevates Logistics Industry Efficiency And Growth
Strategic initiatives in user acquisition and branding among SMEs are rapidly expanding the shipper user base and future revenue potential.Seeking Alpha • Aug 23
Full Truck Alliance: Positive On Strong Q2 Growth And Favorable Volume Guidance
Summary Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.'s revenue and net income attributable to shareholders rose significantly by +34% YoY and +33% YoY, respectively in Q2 2024. The company sees its order volume increasing by +20% or more for the full year, which will be on par with its actual Q2 2024 order volume expansion of +22%. Full Truck Alliance's solid second quarter results and positive full-year prospects support a higher valuation multiple and a Buy rating. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • May 24
Full Truck Alliance: Turning Positive On Results Beat And Attractive Shareholder Yield (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Full Truck Alliance's Q1 2024 financial results were better than expected, with its top line and bottom line expanding by +33% and +50%, respectively on YoY terms. YMM's potential shareholder yield could be as high as 4.5% as per my estimates. I revise my rating for the stock from a Hold to a Buy, following an evaluation of the company's financial performance and shareholder capital return. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 11
Full Truck Alliance: Spotlight On Higher Costs
Summary Full Truck Alliance's actual Q4 2023 operating profit missed the market's expectations due to a significant increase in sales and marketing expenses. Moving forward, Full Truck Alliance sees its top line expanding by +25% YoY in Q1 2024, but it also anticipates making meaningful investments in sales and marketing this year. I maintain my Hold rating for YMM, after assessing its revenue growth and operating profitability outlook. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaKazanç ve Gelir Büyüme Tahminleri
| Tarih | Gelir | Kazançlar | Serbest Nakit Akışı | Faaliyetlerden Nakit | Avg. Analist Sayısı |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 15,211 | 6,722 | 6,609 | 6,344 | 11 |
| 12/31/2027 | 13,060 | 5,702 | 5,536 | 6,133 | 15 |
| 12/31/2026 | 11,639 | 4,666 | 6,665 | 5,478 | 12 |
| 3/31/2026 | 12,638 | 4,130 | 5,698 | 5,863 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 12,490 | 4,408 | 4,497 | 4,627 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 12,472 | 3,979 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 12,145 | 4,179 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 11,670 | 3,757 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 11,239 | 3,070 | 2,895 | 2,970 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 10,472 | 3,095 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 9,705 | 2,603 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 9,003 | 2,385 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 8,436 | 2,213 | 2,169 | 2,270 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 7,951 | 1,823 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 7,495 | 1,602 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 7,103 | 1,008 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 6,734 | 407 | -101 | -16 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 6,241 | -1,108 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 5,674 | -1,680 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 5,122 | -3,898 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 4,657 | -4,173 | -255 | -211 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 4,078 | -5,747 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 3,571 | -5,903 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 2,950 | -3,878 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 2,581 | -3,591 | 522 | 575 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 2,340 | -1,247 | 671 | 679 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 2,473 | -1,542 | N/A | -924 | N/A |
Analist Gelecek Büyüme Tahminleri
Kazançlar ve Tasarruf Oranları: YMM 'nin tahmini kazanç büyümesi (yıllık 16.1% ) tasarruf oranının ( 3.7% ) üzerindedir.
Kazançlar ve Piyasa: YMM şirketinin kazançlarının (yıllık 16.1% ) US pazarından (yıllık 17% ) daha yavaş büyümesi öngörülüyor.
Yüksek Büyüme Kazançları: YMM şirketinin kazançlarının artması bekleniyor, ancak önemli ölçüde.
Gelir ve Pazar: YMM şirketinin gelirinin (yıllık 7.2% ) US pazarından (yıllık 13% ) daha yavaş büyümesi öngörülüyor.
Yüksek Büyüme Geliri: YMM şirketinin gelirinin (yıllık 7.2% ) yıllık 20% oranından daha yavaş büyümesi öngörülüyor.
Hisse Başına Kazanç Büyüme Tahminleri
Gelecekteki Özkaynak Getirisi
Gelecekteki ROE: YMM 'nin Özsermaye Getirisi'nin 3 yıl içinde düşük olması tahmin ediliyor ( 13.3 %).
Büyüyen şirketleri keşfedin
Şirket Analizi ve Finansal Veri Durumu
| Veri | Son Güncelleme (UTC saati) |
|---|---|
| Şirket Analizi | 2026/08/17 19:13 |
| Gün Sonu Hisse Fiyatı | 2026/08/17 00:00 |
| Kazançlar | 2026/03/31 |
| Yıllık Kazançlar | 2025/12/31 |
Veri Kaynakları
Şirket analizimizde kullanılan veriler S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC'den alınmıştır. Bu raporu oluşturmak için analiz modelimizde aşağıdaki veriler kullanılmıştır. Veriler normalize edilmiştir, bu da kaynağın mevcut olmasından kaynaklanan bir gecikmeye neden olabilir.
| Paket | Veri | Zaman Çerçevesi | Örnek ABD Kaynağı * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Şirket Finansalları | 10 yıl |
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| Analist Konsensüs Tahminleri | +3 yıl |
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| Piyasa Fiyatları | 30 yıl |
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| Sahiplik | 10 yıl |
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| Yönetim | 10 yıl |
| |
| Önemli Gelişmeler | 10 yıl |
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* ABD menkul kıymetleri için örnek, ABD dışı için eşdeğer düzenleyici formlar ve kaynaklar kullanılmıştır.
Belirtilmediği sürece tüm finansal veriler yıllık bir döneme dayanmaktadır ancak üç ayda bir güncellenmektedir. Bu, İzleyen On İki Ay (TTM) veya Son On İki Ay (LTM) Verileri olarak bilinir. Daha fazla bilgi edinin.
Analiz Modeli ve Kar Tanesi
Bu raporu oluşturmak için kullanılan analiz modelinin ayrıntılarına Github sayfamızdan ulaşabilirsiniz; ayrıca raporlarımızı nasıl kullanacağınıza dair kılavuzlarımız ve YouTube’da eğitim videolarımız da bulunmaktadır.
Simply Wall St analiz modelini tasarlayan ve oluşturan dünya standartlarındaki ekip hakkında bilgi edinin.
Endüstri ve Sektör Metrikleri
Sektör ve bölüm metriklerimiz Simply Wall St tarafından her 6 saatte bir hesaplanmaktadır, sürecimizin ayrıntıları Github'da mevcuttur.
Analist Kaynakları
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. 19 Bu analistlerden 15, raporumuzun girdisi olarak kullanılan gelir veya kazanç tahminlerini sunmuştur. Analistlerin gönderimleri gün boyunca güncellenmektedir.
| Analist | Kurum |
|---|---|
| Jiong Shao | Barclays |
| Cherry Leung | Bernstein |
| Fan Tso | BofA Global Research |