Major Estimate Revision • Aug 22
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast fell from US$52.8m to US$46.9m. EPS estimate unchanged from US$0.04 per share at last update. Biotechs industry in the US expected to see average net income decline 57% next year. Consensus price target of US$6.23 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at US$6.22 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 16
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$0.097 (vs US$0.14 in 2Q 2021) Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$0.097 (down from US$0.14 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: US$10.5m (down 34% from 2Q 2021). Net income: US$2.46m (down 34% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 23% (in line with 2Q 2021). Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 20%, compared to a 41% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 106% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 15% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 11
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 97% share price gain to US$6.14, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 71x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Biotechs industry in the US. Total loss to shareholders of 34% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 15
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 15% share price decline to US$3.20, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 37x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Biotechs industry in the US. Total loss to shareholders of 64% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • May 23
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 60% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from US$55.6m to US$52.8m. EPS estimate also fell from US$0.10 per share to US$0.04 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 46% next year vs 52% decline forecast for Biotechs industry in the US. Consensus price target of US$4.00 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 8.2% to US$3.82 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 17
First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$0 (down from US$0.53 in 1Q 2021). Revenue: US$10.4m (down 70% from 1Q 2021). Net income: US$2.0k (down 100% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 0% (down from 42% in 1Q 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 20%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst estimates. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 12%, compared to a 36% growth forecast for the industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 98% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target decreased to US$4.00 Down from US$4.50, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of US$3.91. Stock is down 7.8% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.10 for next year compared to US$0.72 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 16
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. Biotechs industry in the US expected to see average net income decline 42% next year. Consensus price target of US$4.00 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 2.1% to US$4.25 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Mar 11
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2021 results: EPS: US$0.72 (up from US$1.44 loss in FY 2020). Revenue: US$75.7m (up 127% from FY 2020). Net income: US$19.7m (up US$59.1m from FY 2020). Profit margin: 26% (up from net loss in FY 2020). The move to profitability was primarily driven by higher revenue. Products in clinical trials Phase III: 1 Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 9.4%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 26% compared to a 61% growth forecast for the pharmaceuticals industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 90% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 16% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Recent Insider Transactions • Dec 08
Independent Director recently bought US$92k worth of stock On the 6th of December, David Ramsay bought around 25k shares on-market at roughly US$3.75 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought US$194k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 23
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 21% share price gain to US$4.85, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 36x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Biotechs industry in the US. Total loss to shareholders of 70% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Nov 06
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: US$0.082 loss per share (vs US$0.43 loss in 3Q 2020) The company reported a solid third quarter result with reduced losses, improved revenues and improved control over expenses. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$13.3m (up 47% from 3Q 2020). Net loss: US$2.26m (loss narrowed 81% from 3Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 79% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 35% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 26
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 17% share price gain to US$4.30, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Biotechs industry in the US. Total loss to shareholders of 82% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 12
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 18% share price gain to US$4.18, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Biotechs industry in the US. Total loss to shareholders of 80% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Aug 09
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS US$0.14 (vs US$0.57 loss in 2Q 2020) The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$16.1m (up 177% from 2Q 2020). Net income: US$3.73m (up US$19.3m from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 23% (up from net loss in 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 65% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 44% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Aug 06
Price target decreased to US$4.50 Down from US$9.33, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 13% above last closing price of US$3.99. Stock is up 11% over the past year. Recent Insider Transactions • May 27
Independent Director recently bought US$70k worth of stock On the 24th of May, David Ramsay bought around 20k shares on-market at roughly US$3.49 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought US$261k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • May 08
First quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS US$0.53 (vs US$0.32 loss in 1Q 2020) The company reported a strong first quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$34.1m (up 350% from 1Q 2020). Net income: US$14.4m (up US$23.0m from 1Q 2020). Profit margin: 42% (up from net loss in 1Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 50% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 49% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • Mar 10
Full year 2020 earnings released: US$1.44 loss per share (vs US$4.30 loss in FY 2019) The company reported a solid full year result with reduced losses, improved revenues and improved control over expenses. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: US$33.4m (up 45% from FY 2019). Net loss: US$39.4m (loss narrowed 66% from FY 2019). Products in clinical trials Phase III: 1 Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 36% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 47% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Mar 10
Revenue beats expectations, earnings disappoint Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 13%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 107%, compared to a 1,438% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in the US. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 05
New 90-day high: US$7.33 The company is up 105% from its price of US$3.57 on 06 November 2020. The American market is up 14% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Biotechs industry, which is up 22% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$45.64 per share. Price Target Changed • Jan 27
Price target raised to US$11.94 Up from US$10.67, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. The new target price is 85% above the current share price of US$6.46. As of last close, the stock is down 7.4% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 13
New 90-day high: US$5.04 The company is up 22% from its price of US$4.14 on 14 October 2020. The American market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Biotechs industry, which is up 16% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$37.00 per share. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Nov 11
Revenue beats expectations, earnings disappoint Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 40%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 20%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 78%, compared to a 372% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in the US. Reported Earnings • Nov 11
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: US$0.43 loss per share The company reported a solid third quarter result with reduced losses and improved revenues and control over expenses. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: US$9.07m (up 59% from 3Q 2019). Net loss: US$11.8m (loss narrowed 60% from 3Q 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 23% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 51% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 30
New 90-day low: US$3.40 The company is down 15% from its price of US$3.98 on 31 July 2020. The American market is up 3.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Biotechs industry, which is down 2.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is US$47.33 per share.