Amcor plcNYSE:AMCR Aktierapport

Business Model – Company value: Strong; Buffett’s preferred: Simple and understandable; Status: ✅; Explanation: Global packaging leader where the merger with Berry Global consolidates market share in essential consumer sectors. Economic Moat – Company value: Strong; Buffett’s preferred: Strong and durable advantages; Status: ✅; Explanation: Significant economies of scale and proprietary know‑how, with the announced 1‑for‑5 reverse stock split signaling continued restructuring of the combined entity.​ Management Quality – Company value: Moderate; Buffett’s preferred: Shareholder‑friendly; Status: ⚠️; Explanation: Dividend commitment and high yield support income investors, but recent complex M&A and dilution weigh on capital allocation quality.​ Return on Equity – 10‑year average: 23.5%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 15%; Status: ✅; Explanation: Long‑term average ROE remains excellent, though the larger equity base post‑merger will likely dilute future ROE levels.​ Return on Equity – Current: 4.2%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 15%; Status: ❌; Explanation: TTM ROE has dropped sharply to about 4.2% because of merger‑related expenses and the much higher reported equity balance around 11.7 billion dollars.​ Operating Margin – 10‑year average: 11.2%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 12%; Status: ⚠️; Explanation: Historical operating margins average roughly 11%, slightly below Buffett’s preferred threshold for high‑quality manufacturers.​ Operating Margin – Current: 9.8%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 12%; Status: ❌; Explanation: Current operating margin is under pressure around 10% due to integration costs and softer volumes.​ Debt to Equity Ratio – Company value: 1.27; Buffett’s preferred: Below 0.5; Status: ❌; Explanation: Financial leverage is high, with total debt estimated near 14.9 billion dollars versus equity of about 11.7 billion dollars.​ Net Debt to EBITDA – Company value: 3.4x; Buffett’s preferred: Below 2.0x; Status: ❌; Explanation: Net leverage of roughly 3.4 times EBITDA is elevated and implies cash flow must prioritize deleveraging over shareholder returns.​ Current Ratio – Company value: 1.20; Buffett’s preferred: Above 1.5; Status: ⚠️; Explanation: Liquidity is somewhat tight at about 1.2 times current liabilities, leaving limited buffer despite steady operating cash flow.​ Free Cash Flow – 5‑year average: 815 million dollars (described as volatile); Buffett’s preferred: Consistent and growing; Status: ⚠️; Explanation: Five‑year average FCF is solid but TTM free cash flow of roughly 725 million dollars is depressed by integration and transaction costs.​ Earnings Growth – 10‑year CAGR: 2.8%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 10%; Status: ❌; Explanation: Over the past decade earnings have grown in the low single digits, reflecting a mature, slow‑growing packaging market.​ Dividend Yield – Current: 6.29%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 4%; Status: ✅; Explanation: The stock offers an attractive yield above 6%, though the GAAP payout ratio currently exceeds 100% of reported earnings.​ Dividend Growth Streak – Company value: 25+ years; Buffett’s preferred: At least 10 years; Status: ✅; Explanation: Including the Bemis legacy record, Amcor has raised its dividend for more than 25 consecutive years and is recognized among dividend growth names.​ Price to Earnings Ratio – Current TTM: 27.53; Buffett’s preferred: Below 15; Status: ❌; Explanation: Using GAAP EPS of 0.30 dollars, the shares trade at about 27.5 times earnings, which is expensive against Buffett’s value threshold.​ Intrinsic Value (DCF) per share – Estimate: 4.85 dollars; Buffett’s preferred: Not applicable; Status: —; Explanation: A discounted cash flow model using TTM FCF of about 725 million dollars, 0% growth, 9% discount rate and 2.5% terminal growth yields intrinsic value around 4.85 dollars per share.​ Intrinsic Value (P/E) per share – Estimate: 9.60 dollars; Buffett’s preferred: Not applicable; Status: —; Explanation: Applying a 10‑year median P/E of about 18 times to normalized EPS of 0.53 dollars implies fair value near 9.60 dollars per share.​ Intrinsic Value (P/B) per share – Estimate: 12.73 dollars; Buffett’s preferred: Not applicable; Status: —; Explanation: Using an industry median price to book near 2.5 times and current book value of roughly 5.09 dollars per share yields intrinsic value around 12.73 dollars.​ Current Stock Price – Company value: 8.26 dollars; Buffett’s preferred: Not applicable; Status: —; Explanation: The latest close on December 24, 2025 shows Amcor trading at about 8.26 dollars per share.​ Margin of Safety – Range: minus 70% to plus 35%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 25%; Status: ⚠️; Explanation: Relative to the three valuation methods, the stock looks overvalued versus DCF but undervalued versus P/B, producing a wide margin‑of‑safety range from negative 70% to positive 35%.​ Final Recommendation – Company value: HOLD; Buffett’s preferred: Not applicable; Status: ⚠️; Explanation: The shares offer a high yield and appear cheap on asset and normalized earnings metrics, but weak current ROE and high leverage suggest caution until merger synergies clearly lift EPS.