Earnings Miss: Amcor plc Missed EPS By 46% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Amcor plc (NYSE:AMCR) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.7% to US$8.73 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.32, some 46% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$15b. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Amcor from 17 analysts is for revenues of US$23.4b in 2026. If met, it would imply a sizeable 56% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 160% to US$0.58. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$23.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.69 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Amcor

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$11.04, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Amcor at US$12.40 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$10.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Amcor is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Amcor's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 56% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.3% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.2% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Amcor to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Amcor going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 5 warning signs for Amcor (3 don't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.