Orlen S.A.

WSE:PKN Aktierapport

Börsvärde: zł166.4b

Orlen Framtida tillväxt

Future kriterier kontrolleras 2/6

Orlen s intäkter förväntas minska med 1.1% per år medan dess årliga intäkter förväntas växa med 15.3% per år. EPS förväntas tillväxt med 20.4% per år. Avkastningen på eget kapital förväntas bli 8.4% om 3 år.

Viktig information

15.3%

Tillväxttakt i vinsten

20.35%

Tillväxttakt för EPS

Oil and Gas vinsttillväxt6.4%
Intäkternas tillväxttakt-1.1%
Framtida avkastning på eget kapital8.42%
Bevakning av analytiker

Good

Senast uppdaterad20 May 2026

Senaste uppdateringarna om framtida tillväxt

Recent updates

Uppdatering av berättelse • May 10

PKN: Future Returns Will Depend On Risky Energa Recapitalisation Plan

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Orlen to PLN 127.33 from PLN 119.22, citing updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, supported by recent research that has taken a more positive stance on the stock. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the higher fair value estimate of PLN 127.33 as support for a more constructive stance on the stock, arguing that current pricing does not fully reflect updated assumptions on revenue and margins.
Uppdatering av berättelse • Apr 26

PKN: Future Returns Will Hinge On Energa Integration And Margin Resilience

Analysts have adjusted their PLN price targets on Orlen only slightly, with a modest recalibration in discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions that reflects a mixed set of recent views, including a more positive stance from UBS and a more cautious one from Oddo BHF. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Orlen points to a split in opinion, with some analysts turning more optimistic and others taking a more cautious stance.
Uppdatering av berättelse • Apr 06

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Soften As Margin Resilience Proves Overstated

Analysts have raised their Orlen price target from PLN 114.33 to about PLN 119.22, reflecting updated assumptions on fair value, slightly higher profit margins and a marginally richer future P/E multiple, with recent research including both an upgrade and a downgrade informing the new view. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts link their upgrade to a view that current valuation leaves some room for the shares to move closer to their refreshed fair value assumptions, anchored around the PLN 119.22 target.
Ny berättelse • Mar 26

Regulated Energy Projects And LNG Expansion Will Support A Stronger Long Term Outlook

Catalysts About Orlen Orlen is an integrated energy and fuels group active in upstream, refining, petrochemicals, power generation, retail and gas trading. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Uppdatering av berättelse • Mar 22

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Soften As Margin Assumptions Prove Fragile

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Orlen from PLN 95.58 to PLN 114.33, citing updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, as well as a mix of recent bullish and bearish Street calls. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts link the higher fair value estimate of PLN 114.33 to expectations that Orlen can sustain healthier profit margins than previously assumed.
Ny berättelse • Mar 11

Large CapEx And Refining Margin Normalization Will Pressure Long Term Earnings Outlook

Catalysts About Orlen Orlen is an integrated energy and fuels group active in upstream, refining, petrochemicals, power generation and retail across several European markets. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Uppdatering av berättelse • Mar 06

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Soften As Execution Risks Intensify

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Orlen to PLN 95.58 from PLN 93.28, citing updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, even as some recent research has turned more cautious on the shares. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts point to the higher fair value estimate of PLN 95.58 as support for their view that current pricing may not fully reflect the updated revenue and margin assumptions built into their models.
Uppdatering av berättelse • Feb 19

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Weaken As Margin Risks Intensify

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Orlen up from PLN 91.47 to PLN 93.28, citing slightly firmer profit margin assumptions and a modestly higher future P/E, even as at least one recent report has turned more cautious on the shares. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the higher fair value estimate of PLN 93.28 as support for the idea that current pricing may not fully reflect Orlen's earnings power under the updated profit margin assumptions.
Analysartikel • Feb 07

Why We're Not Concerned About Orlen S.A.'s (WSE:PKN) Share Price

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20x Orlen S.A. ( WSE:PKN ) may be sending very bearish signals at the...
Uppdatering av berättelse • Feb 05

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Weaken As Earnings Multiple Compresses

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Orlen from €87.31 to €91.47 per share, citing updated assumptions around a smaller revenue decline, a slightly higher profit margin and a lower future P/E multiple, even as at least one firm has turned more cautious on the shares. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts highlight the updated view on a smaller revenue decline as a support for the higher fair value estimate of €91.47 per share, seeing this as a sign that the earnings base used in their models may be more resilient than previously assumed.
Uppdatering av berättelse • Jan 22

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Lag As P/E Stays Elevated

Analysts have kept their target price for Orlen broadly in line with prior levels, citing relatively unchanged fair value at 87.31, a stable 9.24% discount rate, and only small tweaks to assumptions around revenue trends, profit margin and future P/E of 12.05x. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Fair value per share is unchanged at PLN 87.31.
Uppdatering av berättelse • Jan 08

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Disappoint As Earnings Multiple Stays Elevated

Analysts have kept their price target for Orlen unchanged at €87.31, reflecting steady assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, with no new Street research prompting a revision. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Fair value per share remains unchanged at €87.31, with no adjustment to the underlying model inputs.
Analysartikel • Jan 04

An Intrinsic Calculation For Orlen S.A. (WSE:PKN) Suggests It's 26% Undervalued

Key Insights The projected fair value for Orlen is zł136 based on Dividend Discount Model Orlen's zł101 share price...
Uppdatering av berättelse • Dec 18

PKN: Future Returns Will Remain Balanced As Revenue And Margins Slightly Weaken

Analysts have modestly adjusted their price target on Orlen higher to reflect a fair value of $87.31 per share, as they reiterate stable discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P E assumptions. What's in the News Orlen S.A. has scheduled a Special or Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for November 13, 2025, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time to address key corporate matters requiring shareholder approval (Key Developments).
Analysartikel • Dec 17

Returns At Orlen (WSE:PKN) Are On The Way Up

Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...
Uppdatering av berättelse • Dec 04

PKN: Earnings Multiple Will Rise As Revenue And Margins Slightly Weaken

Analysts have nudged their price target on Orlen higher to approximately $87.31 from about $85.86, citing a modestly richer future earnings multiple that more than offsets slightly weaker revenue growth and profit margin expectations. What's in the News Orlen S.A. has scheduled a Special and Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for November 13, 2025, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time.
Analysartikel • Nov 29

Orlen (WSE:PKN) Is Posting Promising Earnings But The Good News Doesn’t Stop There

Despite posting healthy earnings, Orlen S.A.'s ( WSE:PKN ) stock has been quite weak. Our analysis suggests that there...
Uppdatering av berättelse • Nov 20

PKN: Profit Margins Will Improve While Revenue Decline Persists Through 2025 Shareholder Meeting

Narrative Update on Orlen: Analyst Price Target Change Analysts have slightly raised their price target for Orlen from PLN 85.63 to PLN 85.86, citing improved profit margin expectations and a modest adjustment to the discount rate. What's in the News Orlen S.A. has scheduled a Special/Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for November 13, 2025, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time (Key Developments).
Uppdatering av berättelse • Nov 05

PKN: Profit Margins Will Improve Despite Weakening Revenue Outlook By Shareholder Meeting

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Orlen from PLN 83.86 to PLN 85.63, citing improved profit margin forecasts and a slightly higher future price-to-earnings expectation. This adjustment comes despite a modest downward revision in revenue growth outlook.
Analysartikel • Oct 28

Orlen (WSE:PKN) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company...
Uppdatering av berättelse • Oct 22

Analysts Maintain Orlen Price Target as Valuation Metrics Remain Stable Ahead of Shareholder Meeting

Analysts have maintained Orlen's price target at PLN 83.86, citing consistent expectations for future profitability and revenue growth in spite of industry headwinds. What's in the News Orlen S.A. will hold a Special/Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting on October 28, 2025, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time (Key Developments).
Uppdatering av berättelse • Oct 08

Renewable Energy Focus And Funding Diversification Will Improve Future Performance

Analysts have raised their price target for Orlen from PLN 80.08 to PLN 83.86. This update cites an improved fair value assessment and a modest increase in projected profit margins, even though revenue growth expectations are slightly lower.
Analysartikel • Oct 01

Orlen S.A.'s (WSE:PKN) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 42% Above Its Share Price

Key Insights The projected fair value for Orlen is zł123 based on Dividend Discount Model Orlen is estimated to be 30...
Uppdatering av berättelse • Sep 23

Renewable Energy Focus And Funding Diversification Will Improve Future Performance

Despite a further deterioration in consensus revenue growth forecasts, Orlen’s net profit margin has improved, supporting a modest increase in analyst fair value to PLN80.08. What's in the News Orlen will not acquire all or part of GA Polyolefins shares, but remains open to further discussions on asset utilization.
Analysartikel • Sep 13

Orlen (WSE:PKN) Might Have The Makings Of A Multi-Bagger

If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Firstly, we'd...
Analysartikel • May 30

Some May Be Optimistic About Orlen's (WSE:PKN) Earnings

Soft earnings didn't appear to concern Orlen S.A.'s ( WSE:PKN ) shareholders over the last week. We did some digging...
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Ny berättelse • Jan 19

Operations Diversification And Retail Expansion Will Build Future Resilience

Diversified operations and strategic investments aim to stabilize Orlen's revenue and boost capital efficiency and net margins.

Prognoser för vinst- och omsättningstillväxt

WSE:PKN - Analytikernas framtida uppskattningar och tidigare finansiella data (PLN Millions )
DatumIntäkterIntäkterFritt kassaflödeKassaflöde från rörelsenGenomsnittligt Antal analytiker
12/31/2028279,40614,5647,23035,9798
12/31/2027281,01915,4172,56136,9889
12/31/2026296,69819,0592,90238,3848
12/31/2025267,8272,53117,28947,220N/A
9/30/2025270,3996,43015,15344,878N/A
6/30/2025277,3284,51716,10645,232N/A
3/31/2025286,1792,97011,23940,706N/A
12/31/2024294,8862,8265,69736,634N/A
9/30/2024317,3803,99226531,335N/A
6/30/2024328,9018,331-4,79928,808N/A
3/31/2024338,42014,376-4,59729,984N/A
12/31/2023371,91620,9225,72741,914N/A
9/30/2023380,56338,56616,95152,373N/A
6/30/2023374,02148,68424,32154,848N/A
3/31/2023352,79646,23128,99055,640N/A
12/31/2022282,41539,67712,40232,638N/A
9/30/2022217,08025,2021,85917,083N/A
6/30/2022180,60713,432-6712,849N/A
3/31/2022152,22612,047-1,25910,035N/A
12/31/2021131,34111,1222,07013,295N/A
9/30/2021113,6026,9794,51114,437N/A
6/30/2021101,0784,7212,45912,350N/A
3/31/202188,6656,84484110,575N/A
12/31/202086,1802,755-3267,247N/A
9/30/202090,5053,3404137,274N/A
6/30/202095,8163,9552,5638,506N/A
3/31/2020108,0341,2073,8098,658N/A
12/31/2019111,2034,3004,8699,319N/A
9/30/2019113,1234,424N/A7,155N/A
6/30/2019114,2385,221N/A7,276N/A
3/31/2019111,7115,363N/A5,661N/A
12/31/2018109,7065,556N/A4,980N/A
9/30/2018105,0206,440N/A6,822N/A
6/30/201899,4065,980N/A6,273N/A
3/31/201895,7305,777N/A7,887N/A
12/31/201795,3646,655N/A8,050N/A
9/30/201793,5326,853N/A9,712N/A
6/30/201789,8856,777N/A8,806N/A
3/31/201786,2156,844N/A7,077N/A
12/31/201679,5535,261N/A9,331N/A
9/30/201676,7383,391N/A8,351N/A
6/30/201679,1232,659N/A6,386N/A
3/31/201684,5442,418N/A7,301N/A
12/31/201588,3362,837N/A5,354N/A
9/30/201593,1511,702N/A4,199N/A
6/30/201598,8431,445N/A6,231N/A

Analytiker Framtid Tillväxt Prognoser

Intäkter kontra sparande: PKN s prognostiserade vinsttillväxt ( 15.3% per år) är över sparkvoten ( 5.3% ).

Resultat vs marknad: PKN s intäkter ( 15.3% per år) förväntas växa snabbare än marknaden för Polish ( 12.3% per år).

Höga tillväxtresultat: PKN s intäkter förväntas växa, men inte avsevärt.

Intäkt vs marknad: PKN s intäkter förväntas minska under de kommande 3 åren ( -1.1% per år).

Hög tillväxtintäkter: PKN s intäkter förväntas minska under de kommande 3 åren ( -1.1% per år).

Tillväxtprognoser för vinst per aktie

Framtida avkastning på eget kapital

Framtida ROE: PKN s avkastning på eget kapital förväntas bli låg om 3 år ( 8.4 %).

Upptäck tillväxtföretag

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Företagsanalys och finansiella data Status

UppgifterSenast uppdaterad (UTC-tid)
Analys av företag2026/05/24 11:18
Aktiekurs vid dagens slut2026/05/22 00:00
Intäkter2025/12/31
Årlig intjäning2025/12/31

Datakällor

Den data som används i vår företagsanalys kommer från S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. Följande data används i vår analysmodell för att generera denna rapport. Data är normaliserade vilket kan medföra en fördröjning från det att källan är tillgänglig.

PaketUppgifterTidsramExempel US-källa
Företagets finansiella ställning10 år
  • Resultaträkning
  • Kassaflödesanalys
  • Balansräkning
Analytikernas konsensusuppskattningar+3 år
  • Prognos för finansiella poster
  • Analytikernas prismål
Marknadspriser30 år
  • Aktiekurser
  • Utdelningar, splittar och åtgärder
Ägarskap10 år
  • Största aktieägare
  • Insiderhandel
Förvaltning10 år
  • Ledningsgrupp
  • Styrelse och verkställande direktörer
Viktiga utvecklingstendenser10 år
  • Företagsmeddelanden

* Exempel för amerikanska värdepapper, för icke-amerikanska värdepapper används motsvarande regelverk och källor.

Om inget annat anges är all finansiell data baserad på en årsperiod men uppdateras kvartalsvis. Detta kallas data för efterföljande tolv månader (TTM) eller senaste tolv månader (LTM). Lär dig mer om detta.

Analysmodell och snöflinga

Detaljer om analysmodellen som användes för att skapa den här rapporten finns på vår Github-sida, vi har också guider om hur du använder våra rapporter och tutorials på Youtube.

Lär dig mer om det team i världsklass som utformade och byggde analysmodellen Simply Wall St.

Industri- och sektormått

Våra bransch- och sektionsmått beräknas var sjätte timme av Simply Wall St, detaljer om vår process finns tillgängliga på Github.

Källor för analytiker

Orlen S.A. bevakas av 21 analytiker. 9 av dessa analytiker lämnade de uppskattningar av intäkter eller resultat som användes som indata till vår rapport. Analytikernas inskickade estimat uppdateras löpande under dagen.

AnalytikerInstitution
Robert BateBarclays
Yuriy KukhtanychBerenberg
Kamil KliszczBiuro maklerskie mBanku