Optimistic Investors Push ISA Holdings Limited (JSE:ISA) Shares Up 34% But Growth Is Lacking

ISA Holdings Limited (JSE:ISA) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 34% share price jump in the last month. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 34%.

After such a large jump in price, ISA Holdings may be sending bearish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 13.7x, since almost half of all companies in South Africa have P/E ratios under 9x and even P/E's lower than 6x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

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For instance, ISA Holdings' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for ISA Holdings

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Does Growth Match The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as ISA Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 11%. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 44% overall rise in EPS, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 17% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it concerning that ISA Holdings is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From ISA Holdings' P/E?

ISA Holdings shares have received a push in the right direction, but its P/E is elevated too. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of ISA Holdings revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for ISA Holdings that you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on ISA Holdings, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.