Mr Price Group Limited

JSE:MRP Stock Report

Market Cap: R70.1b

Mr Price Group Valuation

Is MRP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MRP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MRP (ZAR295.69) is trading above our estimate of fair value (ZAR150.8)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MRP is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MRP?

Key metric: As MRP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MRP. This is calculated by dividing MRP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MRP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio23.2x
EarningsR3.28b
Market CapR70.10b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MRP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MRP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.6x
TFG Foschini Group
18.9x13.7%R56.1b
TRU Truworths International
10.4x2.9%R40.3b
WHL Woolworths Holdings
24.1x13.6%R62.4b
MTH Motus Holdings
9.2x12.4%R22.4b
MRP Mr Price Group
23.2x13.2%R75.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MRP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.2x) compared to the peer average (15.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MRP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the African Specialty Retail Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MRP 23.2xIndustry Avg. 10.1xNo. of Companies4PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MRP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.2x) compared to the African Specialty Retail industry average (10.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MRP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MRP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio23.2x
Fair PE Ratio15.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MRP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MRP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR295.69
R244.00
-17.5%
9.4%R260.00R197.00n/a6
Nov ’25R257.94
R244.00
-5.4%
9.4%R260.00R197.00n/a6
Oct ’25R271.00
R231.83
-14.5%
12.7%R260.00R190.00n/a6
Sep ’25R242.40
R227.33
-6.2%
11.8%R260.00R190.00n/a6
Aug ’25R217.00
R213.33
-1.7%
8.4%R233.00R190.00n/a6
Jul ’25R209.75
R210.67
+0.4%
8.0%R233.00R190.00n/a6
Jun ’25R177.50
R192.17
+8.3%
4.5%R202.00R177.00n/a6
May ’25R174.90
R192.17
+9.9%
4.5%R202.00R177.00n/a6
Apr ’25R173.81
R192.17
+10.6%
4.5%R202.00R177.00n/a6
Mar ’25R170.00
R181.17
+6.6%
12.4%R202.00R134.00n/a6
Feb ’25R170.71
R174.14
+2.0%
15.5%R202.00R132.00n/a7
Jan ’25R156.81
R171.71
+9.5%
15.3%R202.00R132.00n/a7
Dec ’24R151.00
R171.71
+13.7%
15.3%R202.00R132.00n/a7
Nov ’24R137.53
R154.67
+12.5%
20.4%R217.00R122.00R257.946
Oct ’24R138.95
R164.67
+18.5%
18.6%R217.00R125.00R271.006
Sep ’24R135.00
R167.50
+24.1%
18.6%R217.00R125.00R242.406
Aug ’24R150.77
R176.67
+17.2%
14.0%R217.00R146.00R217.006
Jul ’24R144.20
R181.33
+25.8%
15.9%R234.00R146.00R209.756
Jun ’24R127.31
R190.67
+49.8%
14.8%R234.00R150.00R177.506
May ’24R150.42
R190.67
+26.8%
14.8%R234.00R150.00R174.906
Apr ’24R144.20
R194.00
+34.5%
17.4%R254.00R150.00R173.816
Mar ’24R155.17
R202.33
+30.4%
12.7%R254.00R168.00R170.006
Feb ’24R164.06
R205.33
+25.2%
12.7%R254.00R168.00R170.716
Jan ’24R158.94
R207.83
+30.8%
12.4%R254.00R168.00R156.816
Dec ’23R163.00
R217.17
+33.2%
17.3%R288.00R168.00R151.006
Nov ’23R177.18
R229.33
+29.4%
16.2%R288.00R168.00R137.536

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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