Sibanye Stillwater Limited

JSE:SSW Stock Report

Market Cap: R139.8b

Sibanye Stillwater Future Growth

Future criteria checks 4/6

Sibanye Stillwater is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 40.7% and 2.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 32.3% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 24.4% in 3 years.

Key information

40.7%

Earnings growth rate

32.31%

EPS growth rate

Metals and Mining earnings growth18.1%
Revenue growth rate2.1%
Future return on equity24.41%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated02 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

SSW: Higher Discount Rates And Margin Assumptions Will Shape Future Returns

Analysts have trimmed their Sibanye Stillwater price target by ZAR2, reflecting slightly higher discount rate assumptions and more cautious revenue growth expectations. This is partly offset by a modestly stronger profit margin outlook and a marginally lower future P/E multiple.

SSW: Recent Bank Upgrades And Margin Delivery May Support Repricing

Analysts have reduced their ZAR fair value estimate for Sibanye Stillwater from ZAR103.00 to ZAR100.00, citing slightly higher discount rate assumptions, a modestly lower revenue growth outlook, and a lower future P/E multiple, partly offset by a small improvement in projected profit margins. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Sibanye Stillwater point to a more constructive tone from several bullish analysts, with a focus on valuation support and execution on key priorities.

SSW: Higher Earnings Outlook And Execution Risks Will Shape Future Returns

The analyst price target for Sibanye Stillwater has been raised from ZAR38.00 to about ZAR49.92, with analysts citing updated assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple as the main drivers of this change. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates highlight a mix of optimism and caution around Sibanye Stillwater, with the raised ZAR49.92 price target sitting alongside more guarded views on the company’s ability to deliver on those assumptions.

SSW: Recent Bank Upgrades And Higher P E Assumptions May Support Repricing

Narrative Update The analyst price target for Sibanye Stillwater has been raised by ZAR4. Analysts cite updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and a higher future P/E multiple as key factors behind the change.

SSW: Future Returns Will Depend On Executing Higher Margin And P E Assumptions

Sibanye Stillwater's analyst fair value estimate has been revised from about ZAR50.07 to around ZAR82.53, with analysts pointing to updated assumptions on discount rates, profit margins and future P/E multiples following recent research from major banks. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has focused on how updated assumptions for Sibanye Stillwater feed into valuation, especially around discount rates, profit margins and future P/E multiples.

SSW: Recent Bank Upgrades And Keliber Progress Will Support Repricing

Analysts have raised their ZAR price target on Sibanye Stillwater by ZAR4, citing updated assumptions for discount rates, profit margins and future P/E, supported by recent upgrades and more constructive views from several research houses. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are leaning into a more constructive view on Sibanye Stillwater, with recent research pointing to updated assumptions for discount rates, profit margins and future P/E as key drivers behind higher valuation ranges.

SSW: Recent Bank Upgrades And Project Progress Will Support Repricing

Analysts have roughly doubled their price target for Sibanye Stillwater to US$103.00 from US$50.00, citing updated assumptions for faster revenue growth, higher profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple following recent upgrades from major banks. Analyst Commentary Recent upgrades from major banks have reinforced the view that Sibanye Stillwater could offer investors a more attractive balance between growth potential and valuation than previously assumed.

SSW: Wage Deal And Settlement Payments Will Weigh On Future Earnings

Analysts have kept their fair value estimate for Sibanye Stillwater steady at $38.00, while fine tuning inputs such as a slightly lower discount rate, modestly higher revenue growth assumptions, a small change in profit margin expectations, and a marginally lower future P/E to reflect a more balanced view of the company’s risk and earnings profile. What's in the News Sibanye Stillwater concluded a three year wage agreement for its South African gold operations with AMCU, NUM, UASA and Solidarity.

SSW: Future Wage And Settlement Costs Will Pressure Earnings Outlook

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Sibanye Stillwater from $19.50 to $38.00, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple that they consider a closer reflection of the company’s outlook. What's in the News Sibanye Stillwater concluded a three year wage agreement at its South African gold operations with AMCU, NUM, UASA, and Solidarity, covering annual wage and benefit adjustments for employees from 1 July 2025 to 30 June 2028 (Key Developments).

SSW: Future Returns Will Depend On Chrome Agreement Cash Flows

Analysts have slightly trimmed their price target on Sibanye Stillwater to around $50.07 from approximately $50.16, citing moderate reductions in the assumed discount rate, upgraded forecasts for revenue growth and profit margins, and a somewhat lower future price to earnings multiple. What's in the News Concluded a three year wage agreement at South African gold operations with AMCU, NUM, UASA, and Solidarity.

SSW: Future Returns Will Depend On Chrome Deals And Leadership Transition

Analysts have nudged their price target on Sibanye Stillwater higher to approximately $50 from about $47, citing slightly stronger expectations for revenue growth and profit margins, despite a modest uptick in the assumed discount rate and a largely unchanged future earnings multiple. What's in the News Sibanye Stillwater agreed to a USD 215 million commercial settlement with Appian Capital Advisory over the terminated Atlantic Nickel and Mineração Vale Verde acquisition, resolving the dispute ahead of a quantum trial that had been set for November 2025 (Key Developments).

SSW: Future Performance Will Depend On Platinum Group Metal Price Momentum

Analysts have increased their price target for Sibanye Stillwater from $7 to $8.50. They cite expectations for stronger performance in platinum group metals and improved future profitability, despite recent operational challenges.

SSW: Future Depends On Platinum Group Metal Gains Amid Gold Weakness

The analyst price target for Sibanye Stillwater has increased from $7.00 to $8.50, as analysts cite improved prospects in its platinum group metal business and expectations for stronger back-end weighted production following a recent rise in PGM prices. Analyst Commentary Analysts have provided a nuanced outlook on Sibanye Stillwater, reflecting both optimism and ongoing concerns.

Improving Metal Prices And Leadership Changes Will Drive Profit Outlook

Analysts have raised their price target for Sibanye Stillwater to $8.50, up from $7. This decision is based on anticipated gains from stronger platinum group metal performance and improving profit outlooks.

Lithium Oversupply And Global Electrification Will Reshape Metals Markets

Narrative Update on Sibanye Stillwater Analysts have raised their price target for Sibanye Stillwater from $7.00 to $8.50, citing improved revenue growth and profit margin expectations. They also point to anticipated benefits from a recovery in platinum group metal prices.

Lithium Oversupply And Global Electrification Will Reshape Metals Markets

Analysts have raised Sibanye Stillwater’s price target to ZAR33.44 as they anticipate a gradual operational recovery and medium-term upside from stronger PGM prices, despite near-term gold challenges. Analyst Commentary Expectations of a gradual operational recovery with production weighted toward the second half of the year.

Lithium Oversupply And Global Electrification Will Reshape Metals Markets

Despite softer first-half operational performance and continued weakness in the South Africa Gold segment, analysts have raised Sibanye Stillwater’s price target to ZAR32.40, driven by a stronger outlook for platinum group metals and benefit from improved PGM prices. Analyst Commentary Softer first-half operational performance, particularly in the South Africa Gold business, led to another guidance downgrade.

Leadership Shifts And Cost Pressures Will Spark Battery Metals Turnaround

With both the discount rate and future P/E remaining essentially unchanged, analyst perceptions of Sibanye Stillwater’s valuation are stable, resulting in an unchanged consensus price target of ZAR31.13. What's in the News Sibanye Stillwater expects first half 2025 headline earnings per share (HEPS) to increase over 100% year-on-year, despite a basic loss per share driven primarily by impairment losses at US PGM operations and the Keliber lithium project.
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Leadership Shifts And Cost Pressures Will Spark Battery Metals Turnaround

Leadership changes may lead to strategic shifts that could misalign with market expectations, affecting revenue growth and investor confidence.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

JSE:SSW - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (ZAR Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/2028153,99837,12541,86749,9577
12/31/2027177,81644,21237,92956,9238
12/31/2026184,12945,48634,22351,9358
12/31/2025129,677-5,1711,40221,709N/A
9/30/2025120,685-4,36262620,759N/A
6/30/2025111,692-3,553-15119,809N/A
3/31/2025111,911-5,425-5,71715,048N/A
12/31/2024112,129-7,297-11,28310,286N/A
9/30/2024110,225-29,913-13,1369,000N/A
6/30/2024108,320-52,530-14,9907,714N/A
3/31/2024111,002-45,151-12,49410,064N/A
12/31/2023113,684-37,772-9,99812,413N/A
9/30/2023121,081-11,984-3,44818,062N/A
6/30/2023128,47713,8033,10223,711N/A
3/31/2023133,38316,1006,10024,354N/A
12/31/2022138,28818,3969,09724,996N/A
9/30/2022145,45419,31516,52131,120N/A
6/30/2022152,62020,23423,94537,243N/A
3/31/2022162,40726,64430,81943,838N/A
12/31/2021172,19433,05437,69250,432N/A
9/30/2021167,26038,90931,91543,819N/A
6/30/2021162,32644,76326,13837,205N/A
3/31/2021144,85937,03822,68633,027N/A
12/31/2020127,39229,31219,23328,849N/A
9/30/2020115,90019,50716,39725,834N/A
6/30/2020104,4109,70213,56422,822N/A
3/31/202088,6674,8827,70316,185N/A
12/31/201972,925621,8429,548N/A
9/30/201961,603-1,384N/A10,370N/A
6/30/201950,281-2,831N/A11,191N/A
3/31/201950,469-2,665N/A11,694N/A
12/31/201850,656-2,500N/A12,198N/A
9/30/201850,629-1,028N/A8,090N/A
6/30/201850,602443N/A3,983N/A
3/31/201848,257-1,997N/A3,642N/A
12/31/201745,912-4,437N/A3,301N/A
9/30/201740,833-3,050N/A3,837N/A
6/30/201735,755-1,663N/A4,373N/A
3/31/201733,498905N/A5,195N/A
12/31/201631,2413,473N/A6,017N/A
9/30/201629,2092,172N/A5,770N/A
6/30/201627,177870N/A5,523N/A
3/31/201624,947794N/A4,849N/A
12/31/201522,717717N/A4,174N/A
9/30/201522,457958N/A4,061N/A
6/30/201522,1981,199N/A3,949N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SSW is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (9.8%).

Earnings vs Market: SSW is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: SSW is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: SSW's revenue (2.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the ZA market (6.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SSW's revenue (2.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SSW's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (24.4%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/05 07:33
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/04 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Sibanye Stillwater Limited is covered by 18 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Wade NapierAvior Capital Markets
Andrew ByrneBarclays
Alexander Robert PearceBMO Capital Markets Equity Research