Sasol Limited's (JSE:SOL) dividend is being reduced from last year's payment covering the same period to ZAR10.00 on the 18th of September. The yield is still above the industry average at 8.2%.
View our latest analysis for Sasol
Sasol's Payment Has Solid Earnings Coverage
We like to see robust dividend yields, but that doesn't matter if the payment isn't sustainable. Prior to this announcement, the company was paying out 121% of what it was earning, however the dividend was quite comfortably covered by free cash flows at a cash payout ratio of only 69%. Given that the dividend is a cash outflow, we think that cash is more important than accounting measures of profit when assessing the dividend, so this is a mitigating factor.
According to analysts, EPS should be several times higher next year. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate that the payout ratio could reach 28%, which is in a comfortable range for us.
Dividend Volatility
Although the company has a long dividend history, it has been cut at least once in the last 10 years. Since 2013, the annual payment back then was ZAR17.50, compared to the most recent full-year payment of ZAR20.00. This implies that the company grew its distributions at a yearly rate of about 1.3% over that duration. We're glad to see the dividend has risen, but with a limited rate of growth and fluctuations in the payments the total shareholder return may be limited.
Sasol May Find It Hard To Grow The Dividend
Given that the dividend has been cut in the past, we need to check if earnings are growing and if that might lead to stronger dividends in the future. Although it's important to note that Sasol's earnings per share has basically not grown from where it was five years ago, which could erode the purchasing power of the dividend over time.
The Dividend Could Prove To Be Unreliable
Overall, it's not great to see that the dividend has been cut, but this might be explained by the payments being a bit high previously. In the past, the payments have been unstable, but over the short term the dividend could be reliable, with the company generating enough cash to cover it. We would be a touch cautious of relying on this stock primarily for the dividend income.
Companies possessing a stable dividend policy will likely enjoy greater investor interest than those suffering from a more inconsistent approach. Still, investors need to consider a host of other factors, apart from dividend payments, when analysing a company. As an example, we've identified 3 warning signs for Sasol that you should be aware of before investing. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About JSE:SOL
Sasol
Operates as a chemical and energy company in South Africa and internationally.
Fair value with moderate growth potential.
